438 S Highland St · Lock Haven, PA 17745

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1910 6,098 sqft lot $47/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AS-IS. BUYER TO PAY ALL TRANSFER TAX.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No formal parking; gravel area
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Construction: Shingle roof; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot

Interior

• Flooring: Wood; Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired hot water heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Wood, linoleum, and carpet flooring; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lock Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#275 in PA, #2,428 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment F.
• Keystone Central SD (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #384 of 539 in PA (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 44 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.91%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,373
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -52.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Green St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-2%)	3mo	$195,000	$125	81
432 S Jones St	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,613 (+2%)	12mo	$213,900	$133	77
329 W Clinton St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,496 (-5%)	6mo	$95,000	$64	72
205 Rose St	0.39mi	3/3.0	1,633 (+3%)	3mo	$225,000	$138	66
306 First Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+10%)	8mo	$219,000	$126	60
116 Irwin St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,505 (-5%)	2mo	$222,000	$148	60
101 Pearl St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,788 (+13%)	3mo	$170,000	$95	58
32 N Jones St	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,682 (+6%)	3mo	$63,000	$37	58
511 Woods Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,616 (+2%)	7mo	$175,000	$108	58
468 W 4th St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,615 (+2%)	5mo	$215,000	$133	56
660 Bellefonte Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,736 (+10%)	9mo	$202,500	$117	54
415 Wright St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-15%)	9mo	$139,500	$103	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $12,531
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $61,342
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17745

• Home prices YoY: -7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $867

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Clarks Barn Rd Unit A Lock Haven, PA	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $75,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $75,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $95,000 Active 492-char remark
16. 2007-02-02
    soldstatus $68,000
17. 2007-01-31
    soldstatus $68,000 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    AS-IS. BUYER TO PAY ALL TRANSFER TAX.

18. 2006-11-22
    listed $72,500 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    AS-IS. BUYER TO PAY ALL TRANSFER TAX.

19. 1997-08-01
    soldstatus $59,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,125 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,125 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$3,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,192
• − Management: −$1,192
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,633
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$632
• After-tax cash flow: $2,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keystone Central SD
• NCES district ID: 4212725
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,713
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5810
• State rank: #384 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lock Haven

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #2428

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lock Haven, PA
• County: Clinton County · 17,718 people
• City population: 17,718
• Metro: Lock Haven, PA
• Population (ZIP): 17,718
• Household income: $58,555
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,048 people
• By 2030: 38,812 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 38,011 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 36,931 · -5.4%
• By 2075: 34,077 · -12.7%
• By 2100: 29,683 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.1pp toward R · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+11.3 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.42%
• Current HPI: 270.5334
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.38%
• Metro: Lock Haven, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+26.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — WBVAR
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $75,000 WBVAR
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $85,000 WBVAR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $95,000 WBVAR
• 2007-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-31 Sold (MLS) $68,000 WBVAR
• 2006-11-22 Listed $72,500 WBVAR
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,125 · -7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.