27606 Koen Ln · Loxley, AL 36551

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1960 0.85 ac lot Est $113k · 29% under ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,100 square feet of living space and is packed with potential. Situated on a nice-sized lot in the heart of Loxley, this property is perfect for investors looking to add to their portfolio or first-time homebuyers ready to build equity and make a home their own. Enjoy the convenience of a central location with easy access to local schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. With ample outdoor space, and plenty of room for updates and personalization, this home presents an excellent opportunity. Don’t miss your chance to own a property with great potential in a growing area! Schedule your showing today. Buyer to verify all informatio

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Central location
• 0.85 acre lot

Tags

• CENTRAL LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $367.66 annual tax
• HOA & community: Community features: other; No transfer fees

Exterior

• Parking: See remarks for parking details
• Utilities: Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: One story; Resale property; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame and other construction materials (see remarks); Slab foundation; Building area 1100 (assessor)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Waterfront: other (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances (see remarks)
• Flooring: Other flooring (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Other heating (see remarks)
• Interior features: No fireplace; Other interior features (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 4.1% in Loxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 49%, grade F, #288 of 627 statewide, top 46%, 482 students, 65% FRL); Central Baldwin Middle School (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #101 of 257 statewide, top 40%, 757 students, 74% FRL); Robertsdale High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #53 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,450 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.40%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,888
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13880 County Road 66	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+11%)	2mo	$125,000	$103	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $45,692
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $115,251
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $368/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $79,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $368 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $368 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$368
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $10,345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,483
• After-tax cash flow: $8,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,915

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.18%
• Current HPI: 291.8584
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-54.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $79,900 BCAR
• 2023-04-02 Listed $160,000 BCAR
• 2022-08-31 Listed $175,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $368 · -34.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.