839 Herrin Dr · Picayune, MS 39466

$64,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1970 $55/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Special. Single family home with 3 beds 2 bath, new windows, new 3 ton AC unit system, new subfloors with updated Electrical wiring and new hot water heater, plus new cabinets. Basically ready for Sheetrock to be installed.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• New hot water heater
• New cabinets

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW SUBFLOORS
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL WIRING
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 3.3% in Picayune — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in MS, #3,748 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Picayune School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #60 of 130 in MS (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 344 active listings in the ZIP; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.33%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,518
• List price: $64,999
• Delta: -52.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
847 Herrin Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,196 (+2%)	4mo	$159,500	$133	88
1005 Abbott St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,170 (-0%)	0mo	$164,999	$141	67
800 S Main St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,148 (-2%)	10mo	$129,900	$113	59
884 Herrin Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,345 (+14%)	10mo	$65,000	$48	57
313 Rosa St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,218 (+4%)	22mo	$64,900	$53	51
904 Clover Cir	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-9%)	20mo	$126,000	$118	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $1,540
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $17,663
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39466

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,104

Max offer price $64,999

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,999 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,999 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,999 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,999 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,999 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $64,999 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,999 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,999 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,999 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,999 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $64,999 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,999 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,999 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,999 Active 159 DOM
15. 2026-02-02
    soldstatus
16. 2025-12-19
    listed $64,999 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Investors Special. Single family home with 3 beds 2 bath, new windows, new 3 ton AC unit system, new subfloors with updated Electrical wiring and new hot water heater, plus new cabinets. Basically ready for Sheetrock to be installed.

17. 2025-09-29
    historical
18. 2025-06-23
    price $87,000
19. 2025-06-09
    listed $97,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$5,443
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $1,583
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$380
• After-tax cash flow: $1,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Picayune School District
• NCES district ID: 2803630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,446
• Composite: 27.17/100
• National rank: #7025
• State rank: #60 of 130 in MS

Livability — Picayune

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3748

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picayune, MS
• Population (ZIP): 28,292

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 18% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.32%
• Current HPI: 194.6541
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-33.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-19 Listed $64,999 Fizber.com
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $87,000 MLSU
• 2025-06-09 Listed $97,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $928 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.