2530 Independence Ave Unit 4h · New York, NY 10463

$315,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Condo · 25 Days on market

Built 1961 $922/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your bright and inviting corner 2-bedroom apartment in the heart of Riverdale! Just 22 minutes from Grand Central via Metro North, this sun-filled sanctuary perfectly balances urban convenience with serene living. Step into a spacious living and dining area drenched in natural light, thanks to its southern exposure. With a thoughtful layout and deep closets throughout, you’ll have no shortage of storage space. The sunny eat-in kitchen, complete with brand-new appliances, offers plenty of room for casual meals while overlooking the peaceful, green building-owned landscape. This well-maintained cooperative boasts an attentive superintendent, a beautifully renovated lobby, upd

Key facts

• $922 HOA
• Built 1961
• Listed 25 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (8.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
• Recommended offer: $288k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,690/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 5586% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $245k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,425 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.50%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-42,616
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $39,117
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10463

• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$922
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$775
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,923

Max offer price $288,425

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-75	+0% $-184	+5% $-292	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-475	-5% $-329	+0% $-184	+5% $-38	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-104	base $-184	+0.5pp $-265	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$3,938	$3.48	24d	3	0.33mi
405 W 206th St Unit 1202E New York, NY	3.0	2.0	900	$6,250	$6.94	26d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $922 · $11,064/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2024-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2024-11-21
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2024-04-25
   price $375,000
4. 2024-02-29
   listed $395,000 Active
5. 2024-01-16
   historical $2,995
6. 2024-01-05
   listed $2,995
7. 2023-09-15
   price $394,000
8. 2023-09-12
   price $394,000
9. 2020-07-27
   soldstatus $245,000 Closed
10. 2020-01-30
    listed $245,000 Active
11. 2019-12-27
    soldstatus $245,000 Closed
12. 2019-12-23
    soldstatus $245,000
13. 2019-12-23
    soldstatus $245,000
14. 2019-11-21
    historical Permanently Off Market
15. 2019-11-10
    listed $245,000 Active
16. 2019-11-10
    listed $245,000
17. 2019-11-10
    listed $245,000
18. 2019-11-10
    listed $245,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,543
• − Management: −$3,543
• − HOA: −$11,064
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 69,470
• Household income: $74,974
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5586.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Two or more races 17% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1% Dominican 25%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.75%
• Current HPI: 168.0211
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.60%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+28.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-16 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-21 Listed $315,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-25 Price Changed $375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-29 Listed $395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-16 Rental Removed $2,995 REBNY
• 2024-01-05 Listed for Rent $2,995 REBNY
• 2023-09-15 Price Changed $394,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2023-09-12 Price Changed $394,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2020-07-27 Sold (MLS) $245,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2020-01-30 Listed $245,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2019-12-27 Sold (MLS) $245,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2019-12-23 Sold (MLS) $245,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2019-12-23 Sold (MLS) $245,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2019-11-21 Delisted — RLS at REBNY
• 2019-11-10 Listed $245,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2019-11-10 Listed $245,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2019-11-10 Listed $245,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2019-11-10 Listed $245,000 RLS at REBNY