4813 E Ridge Creek Drive Dr · Houston, TX 77053

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,062 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1972 4,673 sqft lot $146/sqft · 7% below area Est $167k · 7% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home for beginner. Low tax rate with perfect location. Brand new roof.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• 4,673 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.55%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,208
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -7.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5023 Ridgestone St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,077 (+1%)	4mo	$235,000	$218	69
5119 Ridgewest St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,018 (-4%)	2mo	$165,000	$162	61
16019 Bunker Ridge Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,221 (+15%)	7mo	$209,999	$172	59
4511 Springridge Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,139 (+7%)	8mo	$180,000	$158	59
4503 Nexus Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,182 (+11%)	4mo	$184,000	$156	54
4875 Beechaven St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (+14%)	10mo	$170,000	$141	52
5139 Ridgestone St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	988 (-7%)	7mo	$160,000	$162	50
16511 Lazy Ridge Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (+10%)	2mo	$210,000	$180	48
5111 Raven Ridge Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,181 (+11%)	1mo	$175,000	$148	45
16319 Clearmont Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,177 (+11%)	1mo	$175,000	$149	44
5130 Porter Ridge Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,181 (+11%)	11mo	$215,000	$182	34
5207 Castlecreek Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	908 (-14%)	15mo	$205,999	$227	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-21,211
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-18,744
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77053

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,454/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,495

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15858 Clarke Springs Dr Unit 15858C Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,495	$1.21	20d	1	0.30mi
15858 Clarke Springs Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,495	$1.21	22d	1	0.30mi
15871 Clarke Springs Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,495	$1.19	22d	1	0.31mi
15871 Clarke Springs Dr Unit 15871C Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,495	$1.19	20d	1	0.31mi
15810 Boonridge Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,750	$1.43	43d	1	0.39mi
15706 Clarke Springs Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,495	$1.27	16d	1	0.52mi
15706 Clarke Springs Dr Unit 15706C Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,495	$1.27	15d	1	0.52mi
5030 Shadowridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,800	$1.37	43d	1	0.77mi
5030 Ridgecreek Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,659	$1.19	2d	1	0.82mi
16603 Sentinel Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,799	$1.39	16d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   status $155,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-01-20
   listed $155,000 Active 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   Great home for beginner. Low tax rate with perfect location. Brand new roof.

7. 2025-12-31
   historical
8. 2025-09-02
   price $159,888
9. 2025-06-23
   listed $168,888 Active
10. 2025-06-02
    historical
11. 2025-04-01
    status Active
12. 2025-03-31
    historical
13. 2025-02-14
    price $169,999
14. 2025-02-14
    status Active
15. 2025-02-04
    historical
16. 2024-11-27
    price $168,888
17. 2024-10-17
    listed $178,888 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,454 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,454 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$3,454
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$328
• After-tax cash flow: $1,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,198
• Household income: $66,510
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 562.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 41% Two or more races 22% White 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.09%
• Current HPI: 266.6541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $159,888 HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $168,888 HARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $169,999 HARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $168,888 HARMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $178,888 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,454 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.