4111 164th St SW #20 · North Lynnwood, WA 98097

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $107k · 40% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Marketing RemarksBeautiful home in 55+ park that is close to transportation hubs and Alderwood Mall. There is a new roof. The carport provides covered parking for 2 cars. The park features a clubhouse with a dining room/small kitchen for gatherings. There is also a game room, pool table, library and exercise room. There is a shed for extra storage and low maintenance landscaping.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Clubhouse
• Exercise room

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• COVERED PARKING
• CLUBHOUSE
• GAME ROOM
• LIBRARY
• EXERCISE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 2.4% in North Lynnwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#6 in WA, #107 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Edmonds School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #53 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.58%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,328
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4111 164th St SW #2	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	11mo	$139,950	$112	91
4111 164th St SW #17	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	18mo	$80,000	$64	85
4111 164TH St SW #13	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	17mo	$99,000	$86	73
4111 164th St SW #6	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	19mo	$120,000	$104	71
4111 164th St SW #55	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-12%)	14mo	$85,000	$77	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $77,215
• Equity at exit: $67,402

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $191,857
• Equity at exit: $103,874

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98097

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,314 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $602/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $930

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,138

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4217 164th St SW Unit A204 Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,450	$2.23	44d	1	0.11mi
3805 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$2,295	$2.72	2d	5	0.20mi
15914 44th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$2,159	$2.32	2d	10	0.26mi
3711 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,533	$3.00	2d	7	0.27mi
2510 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$2,670	$2.68	2d	1	0.32mi
15700 44th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,979	$2.11	2d	1	0.33mi
16419 Spruce Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	946	$2,550	$2.70	2d	1	0.33mi
16104 36th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	761	$2,099	$2.76	3d	6	0.33mi
16419 Spruce Way Unit H4 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	44d	1	0.34mi
4109 156th St SW Unit B4 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	985	$1,995	$2.03	44d	1	0.35mi
4109 156th St SW Unit A3 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	988	$1,895	$1.92	24d	1	0.35mi
3333 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,518	$2.40	3d	20	0.39mi
4525 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,902	$1.74	2d	13	0.41mi
15713 35th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	940	$2,000	$2.13	24d	1	0.47mi
15713 35th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1145	$2,395	$2.09	3d	1	0.47mi
16200 Admiralty Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$3,019	$3.86	2d	33	0.57mi
16003 Admiralty Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1156	$1,891	$1.64	2d	5	0.63mi
16604 48th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,162	$2.43	3d	9	0.63mi
3116 164th St SW #2211 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,475	$2.25	5d	1	0.68mi
14925 44th Ave W Unit B3 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.5	1419	$3,000	$2.11	2d	1	0.69mi
16308 52nd Ave W Unit 4 Edmonds, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	11d	1	0.72mi
3406 151st Pl SW Unit Na Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.5	1418	$3,059	$2.16	2d	1	0.73mi
15001 35th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$2,010	$2.27	5d	15	0.79mi
17314 44th Ave W Unit C Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	18d	1	0.81mi
3717 148th St SW Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,912	$2.21	2d	6	0.88mi
14713 47th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,975	$2.35	10d	1	0.89mi
4902 148th St SW Edmonds, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$2,221	$2.77	2d	10	0.90mi
3626 Shelby Rd #2 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.5	1360	$2,600	$1.91	3d	1	0.93mi
17529 44th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	3d	1	0.96mi
4410 176th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	770	$1,850	$2.40	5d	3	1.00mi
5226 149th St SW Edmonds, WA	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,550	$1.82	2d	1	1.03mi
4432 176th St SW Unit 2 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	24d	1	1.07mi
4432 176th St SW Unit 3 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	44d	1	1.07mi
4428 176th St SW Unit 4 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	24d	1	1.07mi
4702 176th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	886	$1,925	$2.17	2d	8	1.08mi
4816 176th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	802	$1,970	$2.45	3d	6	1.09mi
4502 176th St SW Unit 2 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	44d	1	1.11mi
5419 172nd Pl SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	980	$2,895	$2.95	24d	1	1.11mi
17422 52nd Ave W Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	850	$1,960	$2.31	24d	1	1.12mi
17828 44th Ave W Unit 2 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	44d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   price $149,900
3. 2026-03-16
   price $154,900
4. 2026-02-05
   listed $159,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$867/yr (+$72/mo · 144.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$602
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,222
• − Management: −$2,222
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $9,219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,213
• After-tax cash flow: $8,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edmonds School District
• NCES district ID: 5302400
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $67,451
• Composite: 53.94/100
• National rank: #3026
• State rank: #53 of 291 in WA

Livability — North Lynnwood

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #107

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Lynnwood, WA

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $149,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $154,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $159,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $602 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.