21032 Picasso Ct #106 · Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

$252,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Condo public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2003 $632/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. MAJOR PRICE ADJUSTMENT! LOWEST PRICE OF AN UPGRADED GROUND FLOOR 2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH END CONDO ON THE MARKET IN THE NUDIST COMMUNITY OF CALIENTE! OWNERS ARE MOTIVATED! PARTIALLY FURNISHED UPGRADED END CONDO! The Master bathroom and walk-in closet has $30,000 worth of upgrades, including a spectacular custom designed shower! They have spared no cost when it came to the upgrades including new paint, top of the line appliances and total vertical accordion sliding glass door blinds on both front and back. It's a WOW when you first enter and a "I have to own this one" when you leave! You will love the easy to care for flooring, kitchen counte

Key facts

• Kitchen counter tops
• Extra shelving
• $632 HOA

Tags

• UPGRADED GROUND FLOOR
• CUSTOM DESIGNED SHOWER
• EASY TO CARE FOR FLOORING
• KITCHEN COUNTER TOPS
• EXTRA SHELVING
• CLOSET DESK FOR COMPUTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly association fees approximately $632.16; Total annual association fees approximately $7,585.92; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $400; Monthly condo fee of $116 (land included); Association management by Qualified Property Management; Association approval required; Association fee includes 24-hour guard, common area taxes, escrow reserves, insurance, maintenance of structure and grounds, and management; Buyer approval required for community; Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, sidewalks, street lights, special community restrictions; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Security: Gated community; Security gate; Security lights; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential condominium; One story; Faces north; Entry on first floor
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building K/106
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Screened porch; Lighting; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping with trees; Irrigation equipment; Private, paved lot features; Sidewalks and paved roads maintained privately

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room / dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry closet; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (17.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $252k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Land O' Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,951 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,862
• Equity at exit: $54,381

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-40,375
• Equity at exit: $51,775

Cash invested: $70,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,322
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,540/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$632
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,979

Max offer price $206,951

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,000
• Closing costs: $7,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20716 Eustis Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,050	$1.41	1d	1	0.70mi
20191 Sabal Palm Ct Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1404	$2,471	$1.76	3d	20	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $632 · $7,584/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $252,000
3. 2026-02-28
   status Active
4. 2026-01-28
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-15
   listed $275,000 Active
6. 2024-05-23
   soldstatus $250,000
7. 2022-05-26
   soldstatus $208,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,540 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,540 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,116
• − Property taxes: −$3,540
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,550
• − Management: −$2,550
• − HOA: −$7,584
• − Depreciation: −$7,331
• Taxable loss: −$7,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,693
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Land O' Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+21.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $252,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $208,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,540 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.