433 County Road 3114 · New Boston, TX 75570

$129,799

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 426 Days on market

Built 1984 1.40 ac lot $59/sqft · 31% below area Est $187k · 31% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW BOSTON INVESTORS! Welcome to 433 County Road 3114 in New Boston, TX. This impressive single-story home sits on an expansive 60,984 square foot lot and offers you a unique chance to own a property with a substantial piece of land, making it perfect for a variety of uses. This property has direct access US-82 and is a far retreat from all the noise of the city. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Direct access us-82
• 1.4 acre lot

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT
• DIRECT ACCESS US-82

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($836/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,178 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Malta ISD (rural): math 70% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #55 of 1,141 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $897 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,223 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.30%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,042
• List price: $129,799
• Delta: -30.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-16,620
• Equity at exit: $19,353

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,852
• Equity at exit: $11,223

Cash invested: $36,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75570

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,176/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $129,799

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,450
• Closing costs: $3,894
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,799 Active 426 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,799 Active 425 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,799 Active 424 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,799 Active 423 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,799 Active 422 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,799 Active 421 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,799 Active 420 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,799 Active 417 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,799 Active 416 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,799 Active 415 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,799 Active 413 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,799 Active 411 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,799 Active 410 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,799 Active 409 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,799 Active 408 DOM
16. 2026-02-19
    price $129,799 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    NEW BOSTON INVESTORS! Welcome to 433 County Road 3114 in New Boston, TX. This impressive single-story home sits on an expansive 60,984 square foot lot and offers you a unique chance to own a property with a substantial piece of land, making it perfect for a variety of uses. This property has direct access US-82 and is a far retreat from all the noise of the city. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

17. 2025-04-18
    listed $135,799 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    NEW BOSTON INVESTORS! Welcome to 433 County Road 3114 in New Boston, TX. This impressive single-story home sits on an expansive 60,984 square foot lot and offers you a unique chance to own a property with a substantial piece of land, making it perfect for a variety of uses. This property has direct access US-82 and is a far retreat from all the noise of the city. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

18. 2000-05-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,375 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,199/yr (+$100/mo · 101.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,271
• − Property taxes: −$1,176
• − Insurance: −$649
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$3,776
• Taxable loss: −$1,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$326
• After-tax cash flow: $1,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828830
• Math proficiency: 70% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $54,109
• Composite: 59.0/100
• National rank: #1963
• State rank: #55 of 1141 in TX

Livability — New Boston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #20597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,047
• Population (ZIP): 11,047

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.50%
• Current HPI: 156.8696
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $129,799 HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listed $135,799 HARMLS
• 2000-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,176 · -56.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.