2003 33rd St · Lubbock, TX 79411

$95,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1949 8,400 sqft lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Located near Texas Tech University this duplex offers a one-bedroom, one-bathroom layout on each side. Both units feature their own private backyard and designated parking.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Designated parking
• 8,400 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• DESIGNATED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $197/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Brown El Gr Pk To 01 (188 students, 94% FRL); Slaton Middle (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 355 students, 96% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 60% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.75%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $8,126
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $33,193
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79411

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,307/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $924

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 67%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$1,422
Total (2 units)			$1,422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$925	$0.66	43d	1	0.13mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$695	$0.50	21d	1	0.13mi
2211 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1293	$1,200	$0.93	43d	1	0.24mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	43d	1	0.32mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	43d	1	0.37mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	13d	1	0.38mi
2201 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1246	$995	$0.80	21d	1	0.39mi
1920 27th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1366	$1,500	$1.10	43d	1	0.44mi
1915 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1221	$1,100	$0.90	43d	1	0.47mi
2411 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	21d	1	0.51mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	21d	1	0.55mi
2119 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,200	$1.01	43d	1	0.56mi
2416 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,425	$0.82	21d	1	0.56mi
2123 25th St Unit rear Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	0.56mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	43d	1	0.59mi
2404 27th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1250	$1,349	$1.08	43d	1	0.61mi
1718 43rd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,075	$0.57	21d	1	0.61mi
2430 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,450	$0.91	43d	1	0.61mi
2220 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1077	$695	$0.65	21d	1	0.63mi
2311 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	21d	1	0.64mi
1904 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	43d	1	0.65mi
2118 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,000	$0.70	21d	1	0.65mi
1920 44th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$795	$0.57	21d	1	0.66mi
1517 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,095	$0.72	21d	1	0.66mi
1716 24th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1742	$1,850	$1.06	43d	1	0.67mi
2009 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1615	$1,249	$0.77	43d	1	0.67mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	21d	1	0.67mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	43d	1	0.68mi
2404 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,395	$1.08	21d	1	0.69mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	21d	1	0.70mi
1920 45th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	0.72mi
2421 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,575	$1.53	21d	1	0.72mi
2518 30th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1558	$1,750	$1.12	21d	1	0.75mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	43d	1	0.82mi
2613 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,500	$1.02	43d	1	0.83mi
1912 21st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,025	$0.70	43d	1	0.84mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	13d	1	0.86mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	13d	23	0.87mi
2109 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,200	$0.86	43d	1	0.88mi
1601 21st St Unit a Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$925	$0.94	13d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $95,000
3. 2026-04-10
   status Active
4. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-21
   listed $120,000 Active
6. 2009-03-11
   soldstatus
7. 1999-12-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,307 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,307 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,307
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$832
• After-tax cash flow: $3,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,865
• Household income: $47,634
• Rent vs Own: 72.5% rent · 27.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 777.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 39% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.58%
• Current HPI: 210.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $95,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $120,000 LARMLS
• 2009-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,307 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.