2262 Toby Beth Dr · Mount Morris, MI 48505

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 1950 6,534 sqft lot $77/sqft · 26% above area Est $55k · 26% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant-Occupied Investment Opportunity! Great opportunity to add to your investment portfolio. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is currently tenant occupied, providing immediate rental income for the new owner. The property offers a functional layout and strong rental potential. Ideal for investors looking for a cash-flowing property with an established tenant in place. Contact listing agent for showings.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 94 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($947 rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.5% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $62,790 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.90%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,561
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: 26.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2162 W Coldwater Rd	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-1%)	9mo	$101,000	$114	73
5444 Mendel Berger Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	0mo	$42,500	$43	71
2303 W Coldwater Rd	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	1mo	$63,000	$63	66
5428 Farmhill Rd	0.34mi	3/1.5 (+1)	923 (+3%)	9mo	$45,000	$49	65
5442 Nasser St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	13mo	$10,208	$11	65
5454 Kellar Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	984 (+9%)	1mo	$79,500	$81	64
5395 Stiffler Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	912 (+1%)	6mo	$10,000	$11	64
2232 Douglas Joel Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	7mo	$35,000	$35	64
5516 Mendel Berger Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,035 (+15%)	9mo	$15,250	$15	55
1498 W Genesee Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-4%)	7mo	$77,900	$90	53
6117 Penwood Rd	0.73mi	2/1.5	985 (+9%)	12mo	$79,900	$81	38
1416 W Yale St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	800 (-11%)	10mo	$35,900	$45	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $22,441
• Equity at exit: $29,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $60,022
• Equity at exit: $44,919

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48505

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,411/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $643

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2216 Obrien Rd Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	13d	1	0.34mi
5280 Cedar Shores Ct Flint, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1150	$881	$0.77	13d	6	0.44mi
6203 Hilton Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	860	$900	$1.05	43d	1	0.66mi
6113 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$990	$0.90	43d	1	0.93mi
6230 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,000	$0.94	13d	1	1.07mi
514 W Alma Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$925	$1.03	13d	1	1.16mi
5905 Griggs Dr Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	940	$1,000	$1.06	13d	1	1.43mi
246 E York Ave Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	13d	1	1.44mi
1 Sunny Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $69,000 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    Tenant-Occupied Investment Opportunity! Great opportunity to add to your investment portfolio. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is currently tenant occupied, providing immediate rental income for the new owner. The property offers a functional layout and strong rental potential. Ideal for investors looking for a cash-flowing property with an established tenant in place. Contact listing agent for showings.

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $69,000 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    Tenant-Occupied Investment Opportunity! Great opportunity to add to your investment portfolio. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is currently tenant occupied, providing immediate rental income for the new owner. The property offers a functional layout and strong rental potential. Ideal for investors looking for a cash-flowing property with an established tenant in place. Contact listing agent for showings.

18. 2026-01-01
    historical
19. 2026-01-01
    historical
20. 2024-11-19
    listed $79,000 Active
21. 2024-11-19
    listed $79,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,411
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$909
• − Management: −$909
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $1,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$460
• After-tax cash flow: $2,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beecher Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2604500
• Math proficiency: 7% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,719
• Composite: 9.96/100
• National rank: #14685
• State rank: #722 of 760 in MI

Livability — Mount Morris

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #9095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beecher, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 19,519
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 18,032
• Household income: $33,283
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 79% White 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Current HPI: 202.4878
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $69,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $69,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-19 Listed $79,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-19 Listed $79,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,411 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.