Hazel Plan · Palmer Ranch, FL 34241

$285,384

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,180 sqft · Townhouse · 163 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore the Hazel townhome with 1,180 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms. The Hazel is equipped with in-demand features and storage space. As you enter the foyer, it opens into the dining area and great room. Continue toward the back of the first floor to find a half bath. Toward the rear of the first floor, you will find a kitchen with a large pantry. Outside the kitchen, enjoy an outdoor patio. Upstairs, there is a private primary suite with 2 large closets as well as a secondary bedroom and full second bathroom. The laundry area is also conveniently located upstairs.

Key facts

• Large pantry
• Outdoor patio
• 2 large closets

Tags

• OUTDOOR PATIO
• LARGE PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• 2 LARGE CLOSETS
• LAUNDRY AREA UPSTAIRS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $251k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $251,137 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-35,509
• Equity at exit: $42,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-38,700
• Equity at exit: $24,675

Cash invested: $79,908 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34241

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,497
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$357 /mo · $4,281/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,496

Max offer price $285,384

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,346
• Closing costs: $8,562
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,384 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,384 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,384 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,384 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $285,384 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,884 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,884 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $285,884 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $291,484 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $291,484 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $291,484 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,584 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,584 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-02-23
    price $284,584 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Explore the Hazel townhome with 1,180 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms. The Hazel is equipped with in-demand features and storage space. As you enter the foyer, it opens into the dining area and great room. Continue toward the back of the first floor to find a half bath. Toward the rear of the first floor, you will find a kitchen with a large pantry. Outside the kitchen, enjoy an outdoor patio. Upstairs, there is a private primary suite with 2 large closets as well as a secondary bedroom and full second bathroom. The laundry area is also conveniently located upstairs.

15. 2026-01-10
    price $284,384 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Explore the Hazel townhome with 1,180 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms. The Hazel is equipped with in-demand features and storage space. As you enter the foyer, it opens into the dining area and great room. Continue toward the back of the first floor to find a half bath. Toward the rear of the first floor, you will find a kitchen with a large pantry. Outside the kitchen, enjoy an outdoor patio. Upstairs, there is a private primary suite with 2 large closets as well as a secondary bedroom and full second bathroom. The laundry area is also conveniently located upstairs.

16. 2026-01-06
    listed $285,384 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Explore the Hazel townhome with 1,180 square feet of living space, 2 bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms. The Hazel is equipped with in-demand features and storage space. As you enter the foyer, it opens into the dining area and great room. Continue toward the back of the first floor to find a half bath. Toward the rear of the first floor, you will find a kitchen with a large pantry. Outside the kitchen, enjoy an outdoor patio. Upstairs, there is a private primary suite with 2 large closets as well as a secondary bedroom and full second bathroom. The laundry area is also conveniently located upstairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,986
• − Property taxes: −$4,281
• − Insurance: −$1,427
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,761
• − Management: −$2,761
• − Depreciation: −$8,302
• Taxable loss: −$1,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$240
• After-tax cash flow: $3,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Hazel townhome in Palmer Ranch, FL, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmer Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 22,808
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,408
• Household income: $116,412
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 69.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.72%
• Current HPI: 278.3404
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $284,584 Zillow
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $284,384 Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Listed $285,384 Zillow