10399 67th Ave #78 · Bay Pines, FL 33772

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1973 $285/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this elegantly updated 2 bed, 2 bath, double-wide home featuring a bright open floor plan and abundant natural light throughout. Nestled in a peaceful 55+ waterfront community, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and coastal living. Enjoy tranquil mornings by the water at the community’s private park, complete with a gazebo, fire pit, and dock. At the clubhouse, you can take a refreshing swim, join a game of shuffleboard, work out in the gym, play a round of pool, or relax with a book in the library. The clubhouse is also available to rent for special gatherings, ideal for entertaining family and friends. This home has been thoughtfully remodeled with

Key facts

• Community gazebo
• Clubhouse
• Waterfront community

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE PARK
• COMMUNITY GAZEBO
• FIRE PIT
• COMMUNITY DOCK
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.7% in Bay Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#102 in FL, #1,559 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 207 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $150k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-16,322
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-17,075
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33772

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,521/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$285
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10405 Addison Way Seminole, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1133	$2,351	$2.08	2d	18	0.13mi
10032 65th Ave N #24 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	0.19mi
10530 68th Ave Seminole, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,690	$1.69	4d	1	0.23mi
10035 63rd Ave N #18 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1010	$2,125	$2.10	24d	1	0.24mi
10037 62nd Ter N #15 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	790	$1,400	$1.77	17d	1	0.29mi
10037 62nd Ter St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	790	$1,500	$1.90	24d	1	0.29mi
10036 63rd Ave N #23 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,550	$1.53	16d	1	0.29mi
10038 62nd Ter N #17 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,400	$1.39	2d	1	0.33mi
9950 62nd Ter N #305 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,450	$1.29	24d	1	0.39mi
9860 62nd Ter N #1048 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,750	$1.72	24d	1	0.44mi
10764 70th Ave Seminole, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$2,200	$2.66	4d	2	0.50mi
11234 68th Ave Seminole, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$2,400	$2.50	7d	1	0.80mi
5224 100th Way N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	930	$2,400	$2.58	4d	1	0.94mi
9950 52nd Ter N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1090	$2,200	$2.02	24d	1	0.96mi
10532 51st Ter N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1093	$1,800	$1.65	17d	1	1.00mi
4652 Miramar Dr Madeira Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,475	$2.58	2d	33	1.15mi
8080 112th St #108 Seminole, FL	1.0	1.0	874	$1,700	$1.95	24d	1	1.15mi
11201 80th Ave #303 Seminole, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	1.17mi
7770 Starkey Rd Seminole, FL	2.0	1.0	1035	$1,538	$1.49	1d	4	1.23mi
4771 100th Way N Unit 204 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,549	$2.82	24d	1	1.25mi
4771 100th Way N Unit 101 St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,749	$2.19	17d	1	1.25mi
9940 47th Ave N #320 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,575	$1.75	24d	1	1.30mi
8425 112th St #104 Seminole, FL	1.0	1.0	608	$1,300	$2.14	4d	1	1.33mi
1 Boca Ciega Point Blvd #115 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	920	$1,900	$2.07	2d	1	1.33mi
11100 86th Ave #101 Seminole, FL	1.0	1.0	874	$1,350	$1.54	17d	1	1.37mi
7701 Starkey Rd Largo, FL	1.0	1.0	615	$1,600	$2.60	14d	5	1.37mi
8450 112th St #103 Seminole, FL	1.0	1.0	608	$1,250	$2.06	24d	1	1.39mi
8892 79th Pl Seminole, FL	3.0	1.0	912	$2,600	$2.85	4d	1	1.39mi
11700 Park Blvd Seminole, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,400	$1.39	24d	1	1.40mi
8555 112th St #206 Seminole, FL	1.0	1.0	638	$1,250	$1.96	4d	1	1.41mi
11200 86th Ave #202 Seminole, FL	2.0	1.0	836	$1,700	$2.03	4d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $285 · $3,420/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   price $150,000
3. 2025-11-10
   price $155,000
4. 2025-10-22
   listed $160,000 Active
5. 2005-06-01
   soldstatus $75,000
6. 1999-03-01
   soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,521 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,521 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,521
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − HOA: −$3,420
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60
• After-tax cash flow: $2,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bay Pines

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #1559

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Pines, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 68
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,733
• Household income: $73,586
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 720.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -485.84%
• Current HPI: 315.303
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+614.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,521 · +261.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.