404 Park Pl · Fairburn, GA 30213

$295,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 2004 9,147 sqft lot $151/sqft · 9% below area Est $325k · 9% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2-story home.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Fairburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#291 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 531 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $295k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,936 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,775
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -9.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2120 Village Green Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,951 (-0%)	1mo	$320,000	$164	91
5845 Highway 92	0.71mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,072 (+6%)	9mo	$310,000	$150	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-40,361
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-29,062
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30213

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,569 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,283/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,396

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 Parkway Dr Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	2372	$2,440	$1.03	43d	1	0.16mi
6155 Dodson Rd Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,600	$1.08	12d	1	0.40mi
6460 Lake Esther Dr Fairburn, GA	4.0	3.0	1300	$1,997	$1.54	10d	1	0.73mi
6460 Lake Esther Dr Fairburn, GA	4.0	3.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	43d	1	0.73mi
6015 Deer Run St Union City, GA	5.0	2.5	2360	$2,700	$1.14	24d	1	0.75mi
1013 Eldon Ln Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	2440	$2,379	$0.97	16d	1	0.81mi
8317 Hunters Grove Rd Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1821	$5,500	$3.02	43d	1	0.82mi
1008 Eldon Ln Fairburn, GA	4.0	3.0	2402	$2,539	$1.06	11d	1	0.84mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	20d	1	0.99mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	43d	1	0.99mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	5d	1	0.99mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	24d	1	0.99mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,545	$1.80	15d	1	1.02mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Unit 105 Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1413	$2,455	$1.74	43d	1	1.02mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Union City, GA	4.0	3.0	1821	$3,468	$1.90	44d	1	1.02mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Unit Sunshine Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1821	$2,770	$1.52	3d	1	1.08mi
165 Fireside Way Fairburn, GA	4.0	3.0	2230	$2,396	$1.07	43d	1	1.16mi
486 Samara Ct Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	2002	$2,495	$1.25	24d	1	1.18mi
12076 Crosswicks Rd Union City, GA	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1617	$2,831	$1.75	1d	6	1.20mi
5791 Blacktop Ct Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	1991	$2,423	$1.22	43d	1	1.26mi
200 Dodd St Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,685	$1.30	43d	1	1.36mi
152 Rivertown Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1550	$3,500	$2.26	21d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $295,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-02-13
    listed $295,000 New 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    4 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2-story home.

14. 2026-02-13
    listed $295,000 Active 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    4 Bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2-story home.

15. 2010-06-10
    historical
16. 2010-03-18
    soldstatus $89,999 Sold
17. 2010-02-25
    status Pending
18. 2010-02-01
    historical
19. 2010-01-11
    listed $89,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,283 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,714 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$2,283
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,467
• − Management: −$2,467
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$3,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $2,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fairburn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #15939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairburn, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 50,621
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 50,621
• Household income: $94,125
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1025.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Arab 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.66%
• Current HPI: 235.9372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+227.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $295,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $295,000 GAMLS
• 2010-06-10 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2010-03-18 Sold (MLS) $89,999 FMLS
• 2010-02-25 Pending — FMLS
• 2010-02-01 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2010-01-11 Listed $89,999 FMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,283 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.