4866 Alterra Way · Sacramento, CA 95835

$499,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 220 Days on market

Built 2003 5,188 sqft lot $338/sqft · 12% below area Est $566k · 12% under $91/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4866 Alterra Way, Sacramento, CA 95835! This charming single-story home is located in the highly desirable North Natomas community. It features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a bright and open floor plan designed for comfortable living. The spacious living area offers plenty of natural light and includes a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a private bathroom with dual sinks and a soaking tub. Enjoy the low-maintenance backyard, ideal for relaxing or outdoor gatherings. Additional highlights include central heat and air, an attached 2-car garage, and a convenient location close to parks, schools, shoppin

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Walk-in closet
• Soaking tub

Tags

• BRIGHT AND OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• DUAL SINKS
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (57.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (49.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (57.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 402 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,440 (57.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.95%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $565,654
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -11.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4950 Alterra Way	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (0%)	2mo	$490,000	$332	89
180 Connor Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (+1%)	15mo	$530,000	$357	64
1818 N Bend Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,628 (+10%)	2mo	$550,000	$338	58
1872 Ivycrest Way	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,334 (-10%)	2mo	$510,000	$382	52
1707 Danbrook Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,645 (+12%)	11mo	$565,000	$343	50
5330 Alvoca Way	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,353 (-8%)	5mo	$449,950	$333	47
4520 Juneberry Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,559 (+6%)	9mo	$480,000	$308	46
1463 Dreamy Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,507 (+2%)	17mo	$519,000	$344	45
4544 Juneberry Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,547 (+5%)	17mo	$501,375	$324	42
2079 Moonstone Ave	0.59mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,603 (+9%)	13mo	$535,000	$334	40
811 Regency Park Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+14%)	11mo	$530,000	$315	36
5376 Nickman Way	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,685 (+14%)	1mo	$499,000	$296	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $136,321
• Equity at exit: $420,166

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $470,042
• Equity at exit: $876,567

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 16.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$604 /mo · $7,244/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$91
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-1,633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,613

Max offer price $210,440

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4601 Blackrock Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$2,528	$2.69	1d	7	0.39mi
1926 Ivycrest Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,695	$1.65	43d	1	0.56mi
1850 Club Center Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,124	$2.16	1d	9	0.65mi
1900 Danbrook Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	1015	$2,048	$2.02	4d	2	0.66mi
1900 Danbrook Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	873	$1,772	$2.03	43d	2	0.66mi
1445 Dreamy Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,695	$1.79	1d	1	0.71mi
50 Regency Park Cir #9106 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1384	$2,495	$1.80	43d	1	0.72mi
4850 Natomas Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,540	$3.03	1d	17	0.76mi
1816 Golden Willow Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1845	$3,000	$1.63	4d	1	0.78mi
2001 Club Center Dr #3110 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.5	1154	$2,195	$1.90	4d	1	0.87mi
4500 Truxel Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$3,246	$3.25	1d	22	0.98mi
4400 Truxel Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,315	$2.31	1d	1	1.18mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	1d	1	1.18mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,399	$1.51	17d	3	1.18mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,425	$1.53	21d	2	1.18mi
1536 Alicia Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1397	$2,700	$1.93	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $91 · $1,092/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $499,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 202 DOM
15. 2022-02-27
    price $2,395
16. 2021-08-27
    soldstatus $501,000
17. 2006-03-23
    soldstatus $408,000
18. 2001-08-06
    soldstatus $4,850,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,244 · $604/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,244 · $604/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A99 · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$7,244
• − Insurance: −$3,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,444
• − Management: −$2,444
• − HOA: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$29,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,994
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-100.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2022-02-27 Price Changed $2,395 RENT.
• 2021-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $501,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $408,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $4,850,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,244 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.