609 Sumbera St · Holland, TX 76534

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1979 7,701 sqft lot $142/sqft · 38% below area Est $241k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single-story home in Holland, TX with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom on a ~7,700 sq ft lot. Brick construction with composition roof, central heating and air, and practical flooring throughout. Spacious living area with a functional layout and room for updates. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and major roadways. No HOA. Great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

Key facts

• Central heating
• Near schools
• Brick construction

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• BRICK CONSTRUCTION
• CENTRAL HEATING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEAR SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#357 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Holland ISD (rural): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #158 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.23%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,186
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -38.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 N Franklin St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-10%)	3mo	$325,000	$342	41
202 S Lexington St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+14%)	22mo	$249,900	$208	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $51,682
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $142,731
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76534

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,039/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $1,190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $154,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Single-story home in Holland, TX with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom on a ~7,700 sq ft lot. Brick construction with composition roof, central heating and air, and practical flooring throughout. Spacious living area with a functional layout and room for updates. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and major roadways. No HOA. Great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

17. 2026-04-21
    price $159,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Single-story home in Holland, TX with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom on a ~7,700 sq ft lot. Brick construction with composition roof, central heating and air, and practical flooring throughout. Spacious living area with a functional layout and room for updates. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and major roadways. No HOA. Great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $165,000 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Single-story home in Holland, TX with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom on a ~7,700 sq ft lot. Brick construction with composition roof, central heating and air, and practical flooring throughout. Spacious living area with a functional layout and room for updates. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and major roadways. No HOA. Great opportunity for first-time buyers or investors.

19. 2017-11-15
    historical
20. 2017-08-23
    listed $79,900 Active
21. 2016-05-31
    historical
22. 2016-04-14
    listed $79,000
23. 2007-03-16
    soldstatus
24. 1995-09-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,039 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,039
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,678
• − Management: −$2,678
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $12,650
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,036
• After-tax cash flow: $11,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823370
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,232
• Composite: 43.78/100
• National rank: #2938
• State rank: #158 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holland

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #7736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,812

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.62%
• Current HPI: 249.7032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+94.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $154,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2017-11-15 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2017-08-23 Listed $79,900 CTXMLS
• 2016-05-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2016-04-14 Listed $79,000 CTXMLS
• 2007-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,039 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.