9835 Green Valley Dr · Ferguson, MO 63136

$73,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,019 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1950 5,039 sqft lot $72/sqft · 7% below area Est $78k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a great, affordable opportunity for a first-time homebuyer, or an investor looking to add to their portfolio! Brand New Roof, updated kitchen & bath, new appliances, some new flooring, refinished 3rd bedroom/sleeping area upstairs. Don't miss out! Schedule a showing today! (Photos coming soon)

Key facts

• 5,039 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 38 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($505 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $73k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,810 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.58%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,122
• List price: $73,000
• Delta: -6.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2014 Kappel Dr	0.22mi	2/1.0	989 (-3%)	2mo	$19,000	$19	84
9739 Balboa Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	999 (-2%)	1mo	$76,900	$77	82
9614 Winkler Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (+0%)	1mo	$125,000	$123	82
9858 Green Valley Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	936 (-8%)	2mo	$74,900	$80	71
1719 Newhall Ct	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (-4%)	0mo	$120,000	$123	65
10129 Ventura Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,055 (+4%)	2mo	$129,900	$123	60
9866 Dennis Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (+1%)	3mo	$124,900	$121	58
9701 Glen Owen Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (+10%)	3mo	$69,900	$62	57
9871 Medford Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (-7%)	2mo	$124,900	$131	57
9724 Dennis Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+4%)	1mo	$89,900	$85	55
9533 Winkler Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+8%)	4mo	$144,900	$131	55
9850 Monarch Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (-0%)	2mo	$99,900	$99	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $46,470
• Equity at exit: $36,120

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $120,705
• Equity at exit: $58,375

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $686/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	0.08mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	0.08mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	0.19mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	0.22mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	0.38mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.43mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	0.47mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	0.49mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.49mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.53mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.53mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.55mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	0.55mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.58mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	23d	1	0.58mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.61mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.61mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.66mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.70mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	12d	1	0.72mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	0.75mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.75mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.78mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	23d	1	0.82mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	23d	1	0.83mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	43d	1	0.85mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	43d	1	0.89mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	43d	1	0.89mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.89mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	43d	1	0.91mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.91mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	1.03mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	7d	1	1.03mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	43d	1	1.04mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	1.10mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	43d	1	1.12mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	43d	1	1.12mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	1.16mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	2d	1	1.17mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $73,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $73,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $73,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $73,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $73,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-04-27
   listed $73,000 Active 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   What a great, affordable opportunity for a first-time homebuyer, or an investor looking to add to their portfolio! Brand New Roof, updated kitchen & bath, new appliances, some new flooring, refinished 3rd bedroom/sleeping area upstairs. Don't miss out! Schedule a showing today! (Photos coming soon)

7. 2026-04-22
   historical $73,000 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   What a great, affordable opportunity for a first-time homebuyer, or an investor looking to add to their portfolio! Brand New Roof, updated kitchen & bath, new appliances, some new flooring, refinished 3rd bedroom/sleeping area upstairs. Don't miss out! Schedule a showing today! (Photos coming soon)

8. 2025-12-31
   soldstatus Closed 697-char remark

   Show marketing remark (697 chars)

   Solid brick home with hardwood floors throughout. This two bedroom home has an additional sleeping area upstairs. Priced below market. Sales in the neighborhood include 10052 Green Valley, 2 beds/1 bath, 800 sq ft that sold for $74,500 and 9843 Green Valley, 2 beds / 1 bath, 768 sq ft which sold for $61,200. With the 2026 Section 8 Fair Market Rent estimated at $1,100/month, this home has excellent rental and cash-flow potential. To view the 360 tour, please visit: https://my.360tourlink.com/dfbd6af6-ef3e-40db-9884-975ed9f89d7a?type=unbranded (AC unit pictured in the living room is not included with this sale.) This home is being sold as is with the seller to do no inspections or repairs.

9. 2025-12-19
   status Pending 697-char remark

   Show marketing remark (697 chars)

   Solid brick home with hardwood floors throughout. This two bedroom home has an additional sleeping area upstairs. Priced below market. Sales in the neighborhood include 10052 Green Valley, 2 beds/1 bath, 800 sq ft that sold for $74,500 and 9843 Green Valley, 2 beds / 1 bath, 768 sq ft which sold for $61,200. With the 2026 Section 8 Fair Market Rent estimated at $1,100/month, this home has excellent rental and cash-flow potential. To view the 360 tour, please visit: https://my.360tourlink.com/dfbd6af6-ef3e-40db-9884-975ed9f89d7a?type=unbranded (AC unit pictured in the living room is not included with this sale.) This home is being sold as is with the seller to do no inspections or repairs.

10. 2025-12-16
    price $40,000 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Solid brick home with hardwood floors throughout. This two bedroom home has an additional sleeping area upstairs. Priced below market. Sales in the neighborhood include 10052 Green Valley, 2 beds/1 bath, 800 sq ft that sold for $74,500 and 9843 Green Valley, 2 beds / 1 bath, 768 sq ft which sold for $61,200. With the 2026 Section 8 Fair Market Rent estimated at $1,100/month, this home has excellent rental and cash-flow potential. To view the 360 tour, please visit: https://my.360tourlink.com/dfbd6af6-ef3e-40db-9884-975ed9f89d7a?type=unbranded (AC unit pictured in the living room is not included with this sale.) This home is being sold as is with the seller to do no inspections or repairs.

11. 2025-12-05
    listed $50,000 Active 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Solid brick home with hardwood floors throughout. This two bedroom home has an additional sleeping area upstairs. Priced below market. Sales in the neighborhood include 10052 Green Valley, 2 beds/1 bath, 800 sq ft that sold for $74,500 and 9843 Green Valley, 2 beds / 1 bath, 768 sq ft which sold for $61,200. With the 2026 Section 8 Fair Market Rent estimated at $1,100/month, this home has excellent rental and cash-flow potential. To view the 360 tour, please visit: https://my.360tourlink.com/dfbd6af6-ef3e-40db-9884-975ed9f89d7a?type=unbranded (AC unit pictured in the living room is not included with this sale.) This home is being sold as is with the seller to do no inspections or repairs.

12. 2008-11-14
    soldstatus $21,000
13. 2007-10-23
    soldstatus $83,500
14. 2007-07-03
    soldstatus $31,500
15. 2004-08-31
    soldstatus $77,000
16. 2004-06-22
    soldstatus $29,000
17. 1998-05-19
    soldstatus $29,000
18. 1998-05-19
    soldstatus $29,000
19. 1998-03-20
    soldstatus
20. 1997-12-02
    soldstatus
21. 1993-06-09
    soldstatus $35,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$686
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $5,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,240
• After-tax cash flow: $4,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+105.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $73,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $73,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 2007-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 2004-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $686 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.