21602 Ornella Cir · Houston, TX 77338

$235,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2008 5,039 sqft lot Est $221k · 7% over $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Only Braddock floor plan available. Remote control fireplace lots of arches.

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• Functional layout
• Conveniently located

Tags

• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Cypresswood Point HOA with an annual fee of $625

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2008; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14x13); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (each approximately 12x12)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas Range; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Teague Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 1,180 students, 87% FRL); Nimitz H S (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,385 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 2,772 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,542 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,606
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21606 Micheala Way	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,455 (-4%)	9mo	$204,250	$140	82
21818 Barred Owl Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,506 (-0%)	1mo	$250,000	$166	76
3647 Arbor Trails Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,619 (+7%)	0mo	$230,000	$142	73
3603 Bluebird Park Ln S	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (+3%)	12mo	$231,000	$148	69
3334 Maris Way	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,715 (+14%)	6mo	$215,000	$125	61
21734 Oriole Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (+9%)	11mo	$239,900	$146	61
3715 Arbor Trails Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-10%)	4mo	$215,000	$158	59
2827 Cypress Island Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,380 (-9%)	2mo	$204,900	$148	58
3723 Arbor Trails Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (+10%)	5mo	$222,222	$133	56
21431 Ryans Path Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,650 (+9%)	3mo	$202,000	$122	52
21919 Siberian Elm Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,645 (+9%)	7mo	$219,900	$134	49
2639 Cypress Island Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-11%)	4mo	$195,000	$146	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-25,555
• Equity at exit: $59,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,136
• Equity at exit: $64,445

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,061/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $210,909

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2802 Mesquite Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1902	$2,045	$1.08	13d	1	0.40mi
2427 Gianna Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,826	$1.03	7d	1	0.52mi
2911 Cypress Island Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2240	$2,016	$0.90	7d	1	0.53mi
21631 S Werrington Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1645	$1,900	$1.16	43d	1	0.64mi
21407 Palma Grove Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,000	$0.71	13d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 317-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,061 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$240/yr (+$20/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,061
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,355
• After-tax cash flow: $-282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+82.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2024-12-29 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2024-12-14 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2009-08-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-06-27 Listed $128,710 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,061 · -20.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.