1837 Rt 402 · Hemlock Farms, PA 18328

$85,900

1 bd · None ba · 640 sqft · Other public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1950 $134/sqft · 38% above area Est $62k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

RENOVATED RUSTIC CABIN NEAR A STREAM. Leased land through DCNR. Attention hunters, fishermen, hikers, and outdoors people. This is a rare opportunity to acquire your own cabin in the woods. on state lands. Snow mobile and Quad trails nearby. Also near Pickerel Lake, Porters Lake, Pecks Pond, Little Mud Pond, Twelvemile Pond, and Resica Falls to name a few. 2 bedrooms and open living space are part of the charm of this cabin. It has vinyl siding outside and Tongue and Grove Pine on walls and ceilings inside. Kitchen was totally renovated with new cabinets. Out building includes shower and is 8' X 4'6''. Stream in the back is a short walk from the cabin. Home has a shed 8'6'' X 20' as a bonus and basement for storage. Cabin sold as is with all furnishings. THIS IS ONE OF A KIND

Key facts

• Stream in the back
• Vinyl siding
• Shed as a bonus

Tags

• RENOVATED RUSTIC CABIN
• STREAM IN THE BACK
• VINYL SIDING
• TOTALLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• OUT BUILDING INCLUDES SHOWER
• SHED AS A BONUS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($594 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,746 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.22%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,038
• List price: $85,900
• Delta: 38.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $78,984
• Equity at exit: $77,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.62×
• Total profit: $207,278
• Equity at exit: $166,885

Cash invested: $24,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $713

Max offer price $85,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,475
• Closing costs: $2,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,900 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $85,900 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    RENOVATED RUSTIC CABIN NEAR A STREAM. Leased land through DCNR. Attention hunters, fishermen, hikers, and outdoors people. This is a rare opportunity to acquire your own cabin in the woods. on state lands. Snow mobile and Quad trails nearby. Also near Pickerel Lake, Porters Lake, Pecks Pond, Little Mud Pond, Twelvemile Pond, and Resica Falls to name a few. 2 bedrooms and open living space are part of the charm of this cabin. It has vinyl siding outside and Tongue and Grove Pine on walls and ceilings inside. Kitchen was totally renovated with new cabinets. Out building includes shower and is 8' X 4'6''. Stream in the back is a short walk from the cabin. Home has a shed 8'6'' X 20' as a bonus and basement for storage. Cabin sold as is with all furnishings. THIS IS ONE OF A KIND

18. 2026-03-25
    listed $88,500 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    RENOVATED RUSTIC CABIN NEAR A STREAM. Leased land through DCNR. Attention hunters, fishermen, hikers, and outdoors people. This is a rare opportunity to acquire your own cabin in the woods. on state lands. Snow mobile and Quad trails nearby. Also near Pickerel Lake, Porters Lake, Pecks Pond, Little Mud Pond, Twelvemile Pond, and Resica Falls to name a few. 2 bedrooms and open living space are part of the charm of this cabin. It has vinyl siding outside and Tongue and Grove Pine on walls and ceilings inside. Kitchen was totally renovated with new cabinets. Out building includes shower and is 8' X 4'6''. Stream in the back is a short walk from the cabin. Home has a shed 8'6'' X 20' as a bonus and basement for storage. Cabin sold as is with all furnishings. THIS IS ONE OF A KIND

19. 2026-03-17
    historical
20. 2025-08-05
    price $94,900
21. 2025-07-15
    listed $949,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,143 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$215/yr (+$18/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,812
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,299
• − Management: −$1,299
• − Depreciation: −$2,499
• Taxable income: $4,974
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $4,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-90.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $85,900 PWMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $88,500 PWMLS
• 2026-03-17 Delisted — PMAR
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $94,900 PMAR
• 2025-07-15 Listed $949,000 PMAR

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $928 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.