12570 N Cotton Ln #8790 · Surprise, AZ 85388

$1,125,000

12 bd · 8.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Hard to find newly built townhome style fourplex in a great location. Fully leased up. Buyer required to use MAXX PM for property management. HOA covers the following services for this individual unit: Common Area Water, Landscape Maintenance, Garbage Service, Clubhouse/Pool, Internet, Smart Home. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• Garbage service
• Newly built townhome
• Common area water

Tags

• NEWLY BUILT TOWNHOME
• COMMON AREA WATER
• LANDSCAPE MAINTENANCE
• GARBAGE SERVICE
• CLUBHOUSE POOL
• INTERNET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.12M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $77/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.02M (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.02M (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,229/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($112k/yr) (locally 224% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.09M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,022,900 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12570 N Cotton Ln #1079082	0.04mi	12/8.0	—	7mo	$1,100,000	—	80
12570 N Cotton Ln Unit 29-32	0.06mi	12/12.0	—	1mo	$1,000,000	—	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-28,107
• Equity at exit: $342,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $50,298
• Equity at exit: $425,063

Cash invested: $315,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 36.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,900
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,406 /mo · $16,875/yr
• Insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,148
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,841

Max offer price $1,125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	2	$10,228
Total (4 units)			$10,229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $281,250
• Closing costs: $33,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,125,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,125,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,125,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,125,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    listed $1,125,000 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Hard to find newly built townhome style fourplex in a great location. Fully leased up. Buyer required to use MAXX PM for property management. HOA covers the following services for this individual unit: Common Area Water, Landscape Maintenance, Garbage Service, Clubhouse/Pool, Internet, Smart Home. Buyer to verify all information.

15. 2025-03-26
    status Active
16. 2025-03-07
    status Pending
17. 2025-03-07
    historical
18. 2024-12-04
    listed $1,200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $122,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$63,017
• − Property taxes: −$16,875
• − Insurance: −$5,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,820
• − Management: −$9,820
• − Depreciation: −$32,727
• Taxable loss: −$15,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,633
• After-tax cash flow: $7,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This fourplex is in excellent condition with modern updates and a great location. It is fully leased up and ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $1,125,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Listed $1,200,000 ARMLS