7913 Elowen Grove Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$297,790

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,826 sqft · Land · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE Introducing the Voyager floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 1,826 square feet of modern living space. The open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable layout for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this inviting hom

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership
• HOA & community: Association: RealManage; Annual association fee of $450

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Built in 2026; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built by Starlight Homes
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors; Self-closing drawers; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $297,790 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,415.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-534 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,878/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $187,770 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,415
• List price: $297,790
• Delta: 3.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $91,307
• Equity at exit: $230,356

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $282,457
• Equity at exit: $469,992

Cash invested: $80,196 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,502
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,296/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $209,149

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,604
• Closing costs: $8,592
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	24d	1	0.17mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	43d	1	0.30mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	7d	1	0.33mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	7d	1	0.36mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	7d	1	0.41mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	0.44mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	7d	1	0.44mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	24d	1	0.64mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	18d	1	0.77mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	43d	1	0.81mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	16d	1	0.81mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	7d	1	0.83mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	13d	1	0.84mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	13d	1	0.93mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	1.02mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	43d	1	1.07mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	43d	1	1.09mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	1.26mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	1.35mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.39mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	1.40mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	43d	1	1.44mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	43d	1	1.44mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	21d	1	1.44mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	7d	1	1.44mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	24d	1	1.49mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	21d	1	1.49mi
8203 Woodlyn Rd Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,650	$1.00	7d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 803-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   price $297,790 803-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   price $244,990 803-char remark
4. 2026-04-25
   price $239,990 803-char remark
5. 2026-04-24
   listed $297,790 Active 803-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,044
• − Property taxes: −$4,296
• − Insurance: −$1,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,332
• Taxable loss: −$11,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,792
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $297,790 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $297,790 HARMLS