8307 N 10th St · Tampa, FL 33604

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 877 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 877 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 2.0 bathrooms. This home is located at 8307 N 10th St, Tampa, FL 33604.

Key facts

• Built 1974
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1974; Single‑story property
• Construction: 877 square feet of living area
• Exterior features: Located in the Sulphur Springs subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 368 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $180k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.68%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-20,973
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,033
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33604

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 368
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,280/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8118 N Alaska St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	2d	1	0.18mi
8210 N 13th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	995	$1,895	$1.90	5d	1	0.18mi
8416 N Brooks St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,900	$1.74	11d	1	0.24mi
8105 N 12th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	874	$1,650	$1.89	24d	1	0.26mi
8506 N Brooks St Unit A Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,950	$1.94	11d	1	0.28mi
8105 N Klondyke St Unit A- Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	2d	1	0.32mi
8304 N Mulberry St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	858	$1,650	$1.92	5d	1	0.33mi
8004 N Alaska St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	844	$1,595	$1.89	24d	1	0.34mi
8117 N Mulberry St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	800	$2,750	$3.44	22d	1	0.40mi
8117 N Mulberry St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	800	$1,987	$2.48	5d	1	0.40mi
7903 N 13th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,199	$1.85	5d	1	0.42mi
8419 N Semmes St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,750	$2.03	24d	1	0.45mi
8619 N Mulberry St Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	742	$1,350	$1.82	24d	1	0.50mi
8213 N 17th St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	24d	1	0.52mi
7717 N Huntley Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	692	$1,425	$2.06	3d	1	0.53mi
1500 E Humphrey St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	858	$1,772	$2.07	24d	1	0.53mi
8218 N Elmer St Unit B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	756	$1,400	$1.85	24d	1	0.55mi
7707 N Huntley Ave Unit 7707-5 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	655	$1,325	$2.02	24d	1	0.55mi
1502 E Humphrey St Apt C Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	850	$1,750	$2.06	24d	1	0.56mi
8307 N Elmer St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,919	$1.86	3d	1	0.57mi
1503 E Humphrey St Apt D Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	850	$1,750	$2.06	24d	1	0.57mi
1505 E Humphrey St Apt A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	850	$1,750	$2.06	24d	1	0.57mi
1504 E Humphrey St Apt D Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	850	$1,750	$2.06	24d	1	0.58mi
1508 E Humphrey St Apt B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	850	$1,750	$2.06	24d	1	0.59mi
1506 E Humphrey St Apt B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	850	$1,750	$2.06	24d	1	0.60mi
1709 E Idell St Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	857	$1,500	$1.75	2d	1	0.63mi
1607 E Maple Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,500	$1.41	22d	1	0.64mi
1607 E Maple Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,500	$1.41	24d	1	0.64mi
1809 E Sitka St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1115	$1,840	$1.65	15d	1	0.66mi
1601 E Marks Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,490	$2.13	24d	1	0.67mi
8505 N Tampa St Unit B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,250	$1.54	15d	1	0.71mi
8505 N Tampa St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,250	$1.54	12d	1	0.71mi
112 W Stanley St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1067	$2,500	$2.34	20d	1	0.78mi
1502 E Sewaha St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,350	$1.72	14d	1	0.78mi
8618 N 20th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,011	$1.89	5d	1	0.78mi
9413 N Mulberry St Apt A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	692	$1,200	$1.73	5d	1	0.82mi
9606 N 15th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	24d	1	0.88mi
706 E Flora St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	832	$2,225	$2.67	24d	1	0.90mi
1221 E Flora St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	931	$2,175	$2.34	18d	1	0.90mi
2014 E Humphrey St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	880	$1,690	$1.92	11d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $180,000 Active 130-char remark
16. 2025-04-24
    historical
17. 2025-02-27
    price $159,000
18. 2024-12-02
    listed $165,000 Active
19. 2024-10-22
    soldstatus $90,000
20. 2007-10-31
    soldstatus $97,500
21. 2007-10-08
    soldstatus $94,900
22. 2007-08-15
    historical
23. 2007-06-05
    soldstatus $97,500
24. 2007-04-23
    listed $100,000
25. 1986-11-01
    soldstatus $28,800
26. 1983-09-01
    soldstatus $27,200
27. 1981-10-01
    soldstatus $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,280
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$136
• After-tax cash flow: $2,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,055
• Household income: $58,766
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2581.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 35% Two or more races 22% Black 21% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 11% Cuban 13% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -200.24%
• Current HPI: 439.7084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+622.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $180,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-04-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-02 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 2007-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records
• 2007-08-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 2007-04-23 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,800 Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,200 Public Records
• 1981-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,280 · +2078.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.