619 Bailey Ave · Greenport West, NY 11944

$1,475,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 1925 Good condition 0.25 ac lot $641/sqft · 13% above area Est $1301k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 619 Bailey Avenue, a fully restored and move-in ready farmhouse located on the fringe of Greenport Village. Originally part of a larger North Fork farm and estate, this incredibly well appointed circa 1900 residence has been thoughtfully re-imagined to blend modern conveniences with preserved period details. Original features such as hardwood floors, detailed millwork/moldings, and classic architectural elements have been carefully maintained, while updates throughout provide comfort and functionality. The custom kitchen is a standout, featuring a 48" range, oversized center island, custom cabinetry, and an 8-foot bi-fold glass door that opens to the rear yard, creating seam

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• 48 inch range
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY RESTORED FARMHOUSE
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• 48 INCH RANGE
• OVERSIZED CENTER ISLAND
• 8 FOOT BI-FOLD GLASS DOOR
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Security: Irrigation equipment
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Phone connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Clapboard siding; Frame construction; Fiberglass insulation; Partial attic; Finished full basement with Bilco doors
• Exterior features: Back yard and front yard; Landscaped grounds; Level lot; Near golf course; Near public transit; Near shops; Near school; Sprinklers in front and rear; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Chef's kitchen with kitchen island; Stone countertops; Gas range; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer; Wine refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath; Double vanity in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Chef's kitchen; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining; High-speed internet; Kitchen island; Original details; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in basement; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.48M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.48M).
• Recommended offer: $1.43M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,073 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Greenport Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #450 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 339 students, 61% FRL); Greenport High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 356 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $413k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 3178% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,430,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.26%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,300,808
• List price: $1,475,000
• Delta: 13.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1111 Main St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,363 (+3%)	6mo	$1,200,000	$508	75
155 Bridge St	0.19mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,400 (+4%)	2mo	$1,470,000	$613	73
529 2nd St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,200 (-4%)	10mo	$1,100,000	$500	52
1425 Middleton Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,968 (-14%)	15mo	$672,800	$342	43
3900 Route 25	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,162 (-6%)	19mo	$1,090,000	$504	40
525 Landing Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,100 (-9%)	14mo	$920,000	$438	38
520 Madison Ave	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,000 (-13%)	17mo	$1,675,000	$838	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $8,068
• Equity at exit: $219,927

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $325,927
• Equity at exit: $127,531

Cash invested: $413,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11944

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $17,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,735
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,844 /mo · $22,125/yr
• Insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,740
• Net cashflow: $3,875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,903

Max offer price $1,475,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $368,750
• Closing costs: $44,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
485 Sutton Pl Greenport, NY	4.0	2.5	2026	$20,000	$9.87	43d	1	0.30mi
312 5th Ave Greenport, NY	4.0	2.0	1900	$12,000	$6.32	43d	1	0.74mi
64230 North Rd Greenport, NY	4.0	3.0	2800	$6,500	$2.32	43d	1	1.11mi
131 6th St Unit G Greenport, NY	3.0	2.5	2238	$5,000	$2.23	24d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,475,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,475,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,475,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,475,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,475,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $45,000
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $1,475,000 Active 1587-char remark
17. 2025-12-16
    historical
18. 2025-09-23
    listed $1,645,000 Active
19. 2025-09-16
    historical
20. 2025-08-12
    price $1,749,500
21. 2025-05-30
    listed $1,895,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $213,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$82,623
• − Property taxes: −$22,125
• − Insurance: −$7,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,096
• − Management: −$17,096
• − Depreciation: −$42,909
• Taxable income: $24,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,874
• After-tax cash flow: $40,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully restored farmhouse is move-in ready with modern updates and preserved period details, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both paint — fresh paint improves home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both paint — fresh paint improves home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenport Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3612840
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $54,490
• Composite: 45.25/100
• National rank: #5759
• State rank: #450 of 755 in NY

Livability — Greenport West

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1073
• US rank: #21520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenport West, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,744

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.97%
• Current HPI: 462.3431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed for Rent $45,000 ONEKEY
• 2026-04-28 Listed $1,475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $1,645,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $1,749,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-30 Listed $1,895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid