26814 Stardust Mdw · Fulshear, TX 77406

$394,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 5,200 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

Key facts

• Progreso floor plan
• Versatile game room
• Candela community

Tags

• PROGRESO FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VERSATILE GAME ROOM
• CANDELA COMMUNITY
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Sterling Association Services; Annual association fee of $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Faces south
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, cement siding, and stucco exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on the second floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the second floor (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $394,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $500,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1222 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $277,612 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.37%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $500,400
• List price: $394,990
• Delta: -21.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10323 Melida Dawn Way	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,160 (0%)	3mo	$380,990	$176	94
26714 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.03mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+11%)	0mo	$458,900	$192	78
26827 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.03mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+11%)	1mo	$453,900	$190	78
10311 Melida Dawn Way	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,263 (+5%)	2mo	$409,990	$181	71
26718 Concord Dawn Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,443 (+13%)	4mo	$479,900	$196	71
10630 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,074 (-4%)	4mo	$421,990	$203	70
26822 Chandrila Vista Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,330 (+8%)	2mo	$399,900	$172	59
26419 Polaris Rise Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,373 (+10%)	1mo	$415,000	$175	55
10722 Aquila Star Dr	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,463 (+14%)	2mo	$439,520	$178	55
10803 Aquila Star Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,463 (+14%)	2mo	$414,731	$168	54
26303 Polaris Rise Ln	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,336 (+8%)	1mo	$409,000	$175	51
10818 Cassiopeia Creek Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-12%)	0mo	$360,000	$190	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-173,724
• Equity at exit: $74,611

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.08×
• Total profit: $-291,302
• Equity at exit: $43,265

Cash invested: $140,112 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1222
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$626 /mo · $7,506/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-1,328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,457

Max offer price $308,234

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,100
• Closing costs: $15,012
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	43d	1	0.71mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	43d	1	1.35mi
26122 Serenity Oaks Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2438	$2,386	$0.98	5d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $394,990 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $394,990 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $394,990 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $394,990 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $394,990 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $394,990 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $394,990 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $394,990 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,990 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,990 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,990 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $399,990 850-char remark
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $408,410 Active 850-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,030
• − Property taxes: −$7,506
• − Insurance: −$2,502
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,665
• − Management: −$2,665
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$14,557
• Taxable loss: −$25,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,088
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $394,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $394,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $408,410 HARMLS