1106 John St · Covington, KY 41016

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Poor condition 6,600 sqft lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Includes two parcels! Investment opportunity. Cash. As-is.

Key facts

• 6,600 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built with conventional construction materials
• Exterior features: 0.15-acre lot; Public water available; Public sewer

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John G Carlisle Elementary (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 304 students, 81% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 82% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.72%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,964
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1037 John St	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+8%)	4mo	$65,550	$66	76
1232 Clark St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	946 (+2%)	5mo	$203,000	$215	75
1222 John St	0.11mi	3/1.0	812 (-12%)	2mo	$48,000	$59	73
1111 John St	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-12%)	3mo	$132,000	$162	72
1319 Hazen St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	874 (-5%)	11mo	$135,000	$154	66
1020 Winding Way	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,015 (+10%)	7mo	$360,000	$355	61
1323 Highway Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	992 (+7%)	15mo	$128,000	$129	59
1106 Parkway Ave	0.19mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,040 (+13%)	14mo	$245,000	$236	51
343 Hazen St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+8%)	15mo	$255,000	$255	46
8 Montrose St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (+13%)	14mo	$220,000	$211	40
630 Western Ave	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,024 (+11%)	15mo	$199,500	$195	36
472 Station Dr #300	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,051 (+14%)	7mo	$238,189	$227	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $54,979
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $136,610
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41016

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $1,078

Break-even live

Break-even rent $828

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1261 Parkway Ave Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	4d	3	0.22mi
22 Swain Ct Covington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$2,295	$2.41	1d	3	0.26mi
515 Main St Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,215	$2.37	1d	8	0.83mi
105 Ash St Unit 1364141P Ludlow, KY	2.0	1.0	699	$2,906	$4.16	7d	1	0.84mi
336 Elm St Unit 4 Ludlow, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	43d	1	0.98mi
336 Elm St Unit 2 Ludlow, KY	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,275	$1.21	2d	1	0.98mi
1000 Parkvale Ct Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	43d	1	1.00mi
1002 Parkvale Ct Unit 1004 1 Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	43d	1	1.01mi
50 W Rivercenter Blvd Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1273	$3,640	$2.86	1d	9	1.11mi
205 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	648	$2,162	$3.33	1d	44	1.19mi
151 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	726	$2,399	$3.30	1d	102	1.22mi
44 W Freedom Way Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	943	$2,859	$3.03	1d	28	1.24mi
1431 Dixie Hwy Park Hills, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,553	$2.77	1d	10	1.25mi
309 Vine St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$3,334	$3.49	1d	15	1.32mi
1 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0–3.5	1675	$9,200	$5.49	3d	96	1.34mi
5 Devou Woods Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$890	$1.27	1d	1	1.39mi
121 E Freedom Way Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,999	$3.03	1d	27	1.39mi
151 Seventh St W Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	1191	$2,129	$1.79	1d	4	1.39mi
211 W 9th St Unit 5 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.5	900	$1,300	$1.44	3d	1	1.41mi
1025 Scott St Unit 2 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	3d	1	1.46mi
7 W 7th St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$3,420	$3.50	2d	65	1.47mi
19 Garfield Pl Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1680	$2,260	$1.34	1d	11	1.49mi
19 Garfield Pl Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1054	$2,300	$2.18	43d	20	1.49mi
630 Vine St Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$2,239	$3.02	3d	18	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    price $90,000
13. 2026-05-09
    price $95,000
14. 2026-05-02
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,105
• − Management: −$2,105
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $12,370
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,969
• After-tax cash flow: $9,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation, including exterior siding repair, subflooring and flooring installation, interior wall finishing, and bathroom renovation. The investment opportunity presents a significant potential for value increase.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Severe damage and weathering
• Major Subflooring — Exposed and unfinished
• Major Interior walls — Bare and unfinished
• Major Bathrooms — No visible bathrooms

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior siding repair and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Subflooring and flooring installation — Improves living space and value
• Both Interior wall finishing and paint — Enhances interior aesthetics and value
• Both Bathroom renovation — Adds value and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Severe damage and weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
Subflooring · Exposed and unfinished	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Bare and unfinished	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No visible bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior siding repair and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Subflooring and flooring installation — Improves living space and value ↑
• Both Interior wall finishing and paint — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Adds value and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 5,795
• Household income: $71,172
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.84%
• Current HPI: 215.1436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $90,000 NKMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $95,000 NKMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $110,000 NKMLS