4546 Povo Rd · Bellemont, AZ 86015

$562,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2021 6,668 sqft lot $370/sqft · 6% above area Est $533k · 6% over $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The price of this plan on lot# 397 includes a $55,000 lot premium. Other lots and plans are available. Now offering various single family home floor plans in Capstone Homes community, Flagstaff Meadows! 10 plans to choose from, and several lots currently available. Ask about our Zero Energy Ready Included home features! Various financing options available. Don't wait, call today for additional info. Pricing subject to change with additional options and upgrades selected by buyer.

Key facts

• Backs to open space
• New a/c unit
• Peak views

Tags

• NEW A/C UNIT
• FULLY LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• BACKS TO OPEN SPACE
• PEAK VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOAMCO association; Association fee $350; Community trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Partially fenced yard; Landscaped lot; Level lot; Forest view; Paved, public maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; ENERGY STAR qualified refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Forced air heating; ENERGY STAR qualified heating equipment; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Gas fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $563k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($402/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $441k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $441k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $467k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $441,220 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $532,535
• List price: $562,900
• Delta: 5.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11507 W Cove Crest Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+1%)	2mo	$560,000	$364	92
11780 Pegasus Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,561 (+3%)	2mo	$580,000	$372	88
11950 Pegasus Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+3%)	7mo	$569,000	$362	84
11600 W Cove Crest Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-4%)	9mo	$545,000	$375	80
12361 Pegasus Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,540 (+1%)	3mo	$480,000	$312	79
11900 Hydrus Rd	0.09mi	3/2.2	1,640 (+8%)	5mo	$520,000	$317	78
11901 Pegasus Rd	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,624 (+7%)	7mo	$520,000	$320	76
4675 Cygnus Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-8%)	5mo	$509,900	$365	75
11721 Pegasus Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-9%)	3mo	$529,000	$381	74
12235 Perseus Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,624 (+7%)	0mo	$520,000	$320	72
12311 Pegasus Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-9%)	1mo	$486,000	$352	70
11798 Monarch Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,746 (+15%)	5mo	$613,000	$351	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-87,141
• Equity at exit: $86,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-72,134
• Equity at exit: $52,589

Cash invested: $157,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86015

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,952
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,840/yr
• Insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$927
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,370

Max offer price $562,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $140,725
• Closing costs: $16,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $562,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $562,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $562,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $562,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $562,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $562,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $562,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $562,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $562,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $562,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $562,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $574,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $574,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $574,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $574,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $574,900 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $574,900 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $574,900 Active 909-char remark
19. 2021-09-13
    soldstatus $466,689 Closed 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    The price of this plan on lot# 397 includes a $55,000 lot premium. Other lots and plans are available. Now offering various single family home floor plans in Capstone Homes community, Flagstaff Meadows! 10 plans to choose from, and several lots currently available. Ask about our Zero Energy Ready Included home features! Various financing options available. Don't wait, call today for additional info. Pricing subject to change with additional options and upgrades selected by buyer.

20. 2021-06-02
    soldstatus $735,000
21. 2021-03-10
    historical 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    The price of this plan on lot# 397 includes a $55,000 lot premium. Other lots and plans are available. Now offering various single family home floor plans in Capstone Homes community, Flagstaff Meadows! 10 plans to choose from, and several lots currently available. Ask about our Zero Energy Ready Included home features! Various financing options available. Don't wait, call today for additional info. Pricing subject to change with additional options and upgrades selected by buyer.

22. 2021-02-10
    listed $409,900 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    The price of this plan on lot# 397 includes a $55,000 lot premium. Other lots and plans are available. Now offering various single family home floor plans in Capstone Homes community, Flagstaff Meadows! 10 plans to choose from, and several lots currently available. Ask about our Zero Energy Ready Included home features! Various financing options available. Don't wait, call today for additional info. Pricing subject to change with additional options and upgrades selected by buyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,840 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,715 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: +$875/yr (+$73/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,840
• − Insurance: −$2,814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,236
• − Management: −$4,236
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$16,375
• Taxable loss: −$9,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,264
• After-tax cash flow: $2,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bellemont

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellemont, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,447

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Native American 23% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.91%
• Current HPI: 219.9374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+37.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $562,900 NAZMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $574,900 NAZMLS
• 2021-09-13 Sold (MLS) $466,689 NAZMLS
• 2021-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $735,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-10 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2021-02-10 Listed $409,900 NAZMLS

Property tax history

+33.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,840 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.