2414 Manor Valley Ln · Sienna, TX 77459

$385,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2020 6,538 sqft lot $217/sqft · at area comps Est $395k · at est. $102/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Stunning 2020 Newmark home featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and an exceptional open-concept design with soaring ceilings and abundant natural light. The chef-inspired kitchen boasts a large quartz island, stainless steel appliances, designer finishes, and overlooks the expansive great room highlighted by a gas fireplace and impressive wall of windows. The private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat, while the secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy the covered patio and spacious backyard with no back neighbors, providing added privacy and tranquility. Located in the highly sought-after Sienna community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Gas fireplace
• Wall of windows

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• LARGE QUARTZ ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS FIREPLACE
• WALL OF WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $385k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $385,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.21%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,637
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: 0.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2210 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,790 (+1%)	9mo	$335,000	$187	75
8719 Azalea Crossing Ct	0.44mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,977 (+11%)	10mo	$434,995	$220	47
8731 Arbor Trail Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (+3%)	16mo	$320,000	$175	41
1807 Meadow Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-1%)	23mo	$375,000	$214	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-12,992
• Equity at exit: $80,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $8,512
• Equity at exit: $74,790

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$890 /mo · $10,682/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$102
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,015
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,015

Max offer price $385,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.32mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	21d	1	0.57mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $102 · $1,224/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $385,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $385,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM
7. 2026-05-16
   historical
8. 2026-04-26
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,682 · $890/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,682 · $890/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$10,682
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,641
• − Management: −$4,641
• − HOA: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable income: $2,131
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$512
• After-tax cash flow: $7,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+52.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,682 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.