3272 Mourning Dove Dr · Auburndale, FL 33823

$251,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,687 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 2,052 sqft lot $172/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Nestled in the heart of Auburndale’s Lakes District and on Lake Mattie, our community is surrounded by six lakes, scenic trails, parks, and Village Centers—all within walking or biking distance. Plus, you're close to 2 major airports, Orlando and Tampa, and just 45 minutes from the magic of Disney! Welcome to Lake Mattie Preserve! New townhomes with included exterior maintenance, a 2-car garage, & amenities. The Allegro combines comfort with smart design in a stunning two-level townhome. The open concept layout features 9’4” ceilings on the main level, showcasing a gourmet kitchen with a spectacular 8’ eat-at island and modern appliance

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Eat-at island
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• EAT-AT ISLAND
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• DOUBLE VANITY
• SEATED SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Builder license: CBC1257565
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,160; Total monthly HOA/fees: $172 ($2,064 annually); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Ryan Homes (monthly fee $172); Association amenities include pool, park, playground, and trails; Association fee includes cable TV, pool, and recreational facilities; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18x18) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; HVAC, appliances, lighting, thermostat, and windows noted as energy-efficient
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Attached property; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion July 31, 2026); North-facing
• Construction: Block, stucco, and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction (Ryan Homes, Builder model: ALLEGRO)
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Sidewalk; Paved roads; Florida-friendly/native landscaping; Irrigation equipment; Drip irrigation; Low-flow fixtures

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Window shades; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside on upper level

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $251k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lena Vista Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 975 students, 56% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,558 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-59,178
• Equity at exit: $37,425

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-73,936
• Equity at exit: $21,702

Cash invested: $70,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,316
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$172
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,413

Max offer price $207,807

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,750
• Closing costs: $7,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
543 Florida 559 Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	23d	1	0.43mi
328 San Mauro Dr Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,100	$1.23	23d	1	0.63mi
332 Cascara Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,995	$1.54	3d	1	0.64mi
1772 Forest Run Ln Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,000	$1.17	14d	1	1.14mi
132 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,805	$1.46	3d	1	1.42mi
161 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,895	$1.57	23d	1	1.44mi
217 Meadow Vue Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,785	$1.31	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $172 · $2,064/yr
• Likely covers: exterior maint.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-11
   listed $251,050 Active
2. 2025-07-08
   soldstatus $840,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,060
• − Property taxes: −$3,765
• − Insurance: −$1,255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,954
• − Management: −$1,954
• − HOA: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$7,302
• Taxable loss: −$7,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-70.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $251,050 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $840,000 Public Records