1526 Private Rd · Prescott, AZ 86301

$39,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1982 Fair condition $42/sqft · 45% below area Est $72k · 45% under ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.4

Listing remarks

Nestled in the scenic Prescott Park area, this charming home is located in a peaceful, private 55+ community among the boulders near Willow Lake. Enjoy miles of hiking and walking trails just outside your door, with the renowned Prescott Dark Sky Park only moments away. Homes in this highly sought-after community rarely become available. This inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 924 square feet of comfortable living space and features a dedicated office, indoor laundry, and a workshop perfect for hobbies or extra storage. Relax on the covered front porch while taking in the tranquil surroundings, and enjoy the convenience of a dedicated one-car carport.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Dedicated office
• Indoor laundry

Tags

• HIKING AND WALKING TRAILS
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• WORKSHOP
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ONE-CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $806 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.1% vs local median 2.3% in Prescott — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#22 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Prescott Unified District (4466) (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #70 of 249 in AZ (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prescott Mile High Middle School (math 26% / reading 42%, grade F, #67 of 218 statewide, top 31%, 578 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 715 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,415 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.61%
• DSCR: 4.94
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,500
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -45.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1518 Private Rd #1518	0.05mi	2/1.0	896 (-3%)	1mo	$55,000	$61	88
1531 Acklin Dr	0.07mi	2/1.5	952 (+3%)	3mo	$69,000	$72	87
1514 Private Rd	0.09mi	2/2.0	950 (+3%)	7mo	$88,000	$93	85
3175 Willow Dr	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	8mo	$325,000	$339	47
1425 Oak Ln	1.20mi	2/2.0	960 (+4%)	14mo	$349,000	$364	47
1235 Willow Lake Rd	1.21mi	2/1.0	947 (+2%)	15mo	$85,000	$90	44
3150 Granite Dr	1.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	902 (-2%)	16mo	$269,000	$298	43
3010 Samaritan Way	1.36mi	2/2.0	1,041 (+13%)	4mo	$300,000	$288	41
2923 Kendra Dr	1.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+25%)	4mo	$354,000	$307	31
3142 Briarwood --	1.06mi	2/2.0	1,153 (+25%)	12mo	$298,000	$258	30
3040 Olive Dr	1.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+11%)	14mo	$175,000	$171	30
4446 Rock Garden Cir	1.35mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+24%)	16mo	$339,000	$296	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $41,340
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.04×
• Total profit: $87,780
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $77,200 ($95/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -18.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86301

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 715
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $833	-5% $820	+0% $806	+5% $793	+10% $779
Rent	-10% $699	-5% $753	+0% $806	+5% $860	+10% $914
Rate	-1.0pp $826	-0.5pp $816	base $806	+0.5pp $796	+1.0pp $786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 N Granite Gardens Loop Prescott, AZ	1.0	1.0	768	$2,100	$2.73	139d	1	1.33mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: MF-HPrivate maintained road
• Financial info: Property is on a land lease
• HOA & community: Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 space)Total parking for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Public waterCity sewer (WWT - City Sewer)Electricity available (220 volts)Natural gas availableNatural gas water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide)One storyLand lease community
• Construction: Frame constructionComposition roofAluminum window frames with storm windows
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchDriveway (dirt)Native species landscapingCorner lot with level topography, juniper/pinon and other trees, with viewsWorkshop (separate structure)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeMicrowaveOvenRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateVinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath1 three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingEvaporative coolingOther cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen and kitchen/dining comboLiving/dining comboLaminate countertopsWasher/dryer connectionLive on one levelMaster bedroom on main levelLaundry roomWorkshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connectionLaundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $39,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $39,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   price $39,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-08-05
   days on market $44,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-08-04
   days on market $44,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-08-03
   days on market $44,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-07-31
   days on market $44,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $44,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $44,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $44,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $44,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on marketlisting id $44,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $44,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $44,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $44,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $44,000 Active 49 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $44,000 Active 48 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $44,000 Active 47 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $44,000 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $44,000 Active 45 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $44,000 Active 44 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $44,000 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $44,000 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $44,000 Active 41 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $44,000 Active 40 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $44,000 Active 39 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $44,000 Active 38 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $44,000 Active 37 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $44,000 Active 36 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $44,000 Active 35 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $44,000 Active 34 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $44,000 Active 33 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $44,000 Active 32 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $44,000 Active 31 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $44,000 Active 29 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $44,000 Active 27 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $44,000 Active 26 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    price $44,000 Active 23 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $49,000 Active 23 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $49,000 Active 22 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $49,000 Active 21 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $49,000 Active 20 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $49,000 Active 18 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $49,000 Active 17 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $49,000 Active 15 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,000 Active 14 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 13 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 12 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $9,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,311
• After-tax cash flow: $7,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $23,100–$41,580 screening

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom tile — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate landscaping — overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance ↑
• Resale replace carpeted floors — new flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and value ↑
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — new cabinets and countertops can significantly improve the home's functionality and value ↑
• Resale replace kitchen appliances — new appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Resale replace bathroom fixtures and tile — new fixtures and tile can improve the home's functionality and value ↑
• Resale prune overgrown vegetation — pruning overgrown vegetation can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Granite Mountain Middle School F AZ #371/1,109 Nat'l #17,861/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prescott Unified District (4466)
• NCES district ID: 0406730
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 33.47/100
• National rank: #5450
• State rank: #70 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Prescott

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #5579

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prescott, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 241,389 people
• City population: 66,312
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,076
• Household income: $72,652
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.55%
• Current HPI: 350.7591
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: MF-HPrivate maintained road
• Financial info: Property is on a land lease
• HOA & community: Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 space)Total parking for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Public waterCity sewer (WWT - City Sewer)Electricity available (220 volts)Natural gas availableNatural gas water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide)One storyLand lease community
• Construction: Frame constructionComposition roofAluminum window frames with storm windows
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchDriveway (dirt)Native species landscapingCorner lot with level topography, juniper/pinon and other trees, with viewsWorkshop (separate structure)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeMicrowaveOvenRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateVinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath1 three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingEvaporative coolingOther cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen and kitchen/dining comboLiving/dining comboLaminate countertopsWasher/dryer connectionLive on one levelMaster bedroom on main levelLaundry roomWorkshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connectionLaundry room

Price history

-48.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-21 Listed $44,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-07-20 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-07-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $44,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $44,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $49,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listed $49,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $40,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $45,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $50,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $60,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $65,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $75,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listed $85,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-01 Listed $85,000 ARMLS