4516 Southridge Pines Dr · Concord, MO 63128

$200,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1997 6,098 sqft lot Est $374k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a "Short Sale". This home is in the Lindbergh School District and will sell fast. The home needs everything but is situated in a very nice neighborhood off Little Rock Road. Showings are by appointment only. Please use the Special Sales Contract.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.9% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#175 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lindbergh Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #38 of 324 in MO (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elem. School (math 43% / reading 62%, grade C-, #226 of 1,115 statewide, top 21%, 552 students, 10% FRL); Lindbergh Sr. High (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 2,235 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $200k implies a 471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.61%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $373,632
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4701 Sunnyview Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+2%)	4mo	$379,000	$168	72
4633 Colima Ct	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+2%)	8mo	$399,900	$177	70
4709 Theiss Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,068 (-7%)	0mo	$389,900	$189	68
4514 Southridge Meadows Dr	0.07mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,516 (+13%)	8mo	$425,000	$169	63
4721 Kingbird Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,350 (+6%)	9mo	$410,000	$174	61
4642 Theiss Rd	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,436 (+10%)	4mo	$380,000	$156	60
4596 Little Rock Rd	0.24mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,940 (-13%)	3mo	$275,000	$142	58
4740 Hedgemont Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (-11%)	7mo	$325,000	$165	48
4724 Tarlton Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,068 (-7%)	7mo	$300,000	$145	44
4829 Vermilion Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,056 (-8%)	6mo	$334,900	$163	44
4849 Gatesbury Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,012 (-10%)	7mo	$395,000	$196	42
4466 Vermilion Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,528 (+14%)	10mo	$425,000	$168	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,709
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $41,111
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63128

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,818/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,836

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4446 Skyridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2770	$2,706	$0.98	1d	1	0.61mi
3912 Manorwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,350	$1.31	44d	1	1.32mi
11862 Kramper Ln Saint Louis, MO	4.0	3.0	2246	$2,646	$1.18	1d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   status Active
3. 2026-03-24
   listed $200,000 Active
4. 2026-03-24
   historical $200,000
5. 1996-04-02
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,818 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,818 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,818
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,477
• − Management: −$2,477
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $4,175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $6,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindbergh Schools
• NCES district ID: 2918690
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $66,145
• Composite: 42.62/100
• National rank: #3186
• State rank: #38 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concord

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #9260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 30,540
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,540
• Household income: $92,359
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.34%
• Current HPI: 211.4603
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+471.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Coming Soon $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,818 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.