2812 Ogden Pl · Utica, NY 13501

$274,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1935 8,176 sqft lot $136/sqft · at area comps Est $274k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic charm meets modern comfort in the heart of Genesee Lawns. Set on a double lot just a stone’s throw from the New Hartford Village Green, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath Tudor offers over 2,000 square feet of living space and thoughtful updates throughout. The real showstopper is the open-concept kitchen and family room featuring vaulted ceilings and skylights. .. a perfect space for entertaining or everyday life. Much of the home features beautiful hardwood floors, and you'll find character-rich details like built-ins surrounding a wood-burning fireplace and French doors. A finished attic space adds flexibility - perfect as a play room or office. A big composite deck, 2-car detached garage, and your own pond complete the package. With quick access to New Hartford shopping, restaurants, and other amenities all in a well-loved neighborhood, what more could you ask for?!

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Vaulted ceilings
• Skylights

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BUILT-INS
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($501/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,315/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 2251% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,463 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,412
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: 0.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Brookline Dr	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,944 (-4%)	7mo	$185,297	$95	86
102 Hartford Pl	0.36mi	3/1.5	2,038 (+1%)	8mo	$269,900	$132	75
2817 Brighton Pl	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,962 (-3%)	9mo	$230,000	$117	73
17 Brookline Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (-9%)	9mo	$310,000	$169	68
2642 Remington Rd	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,142 (+6%)	1mo	$305,000	$142	52
149 Ridge Rd	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,872 (-7%)	8mo	$320,000	$171	51
311 French Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,769 (-12%)	9mo	$239,000	$135	49
7 Hillside Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,247 (+11%)	8mo	$310,000	$138	46
244 Thieme Pl	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,728 (-14%)	3mo	$305,000	$177	46
91 Oxford Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,723 (-15%)	3mo	$285,000	$165	44
83 Oxford Rd	0.54mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,750 (-13%)	5mo	$352,000	$201	43
97 Oxford Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,758 (-13%)	7mo	$329,700	$188	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $152,344
• Equity at exit: $247,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.80×
• Total profit: $446,467
• Equity at exit: $534,070

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13501

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,768/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,262

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
225 Thieme Pl Utica, NY	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,150	$1.15	43d	1	0.41mi
26 Paris Rd New Hartford, NY	2.0	1.0	2280	$1,800	$0.79	43d	1	0.42mi
11 Sanger Ave New Hartford, NY	3.0	2.5	1852	$3,750	$2.02	43d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $274,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $274,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $274,900 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-03-20
    listed $299,900 Active 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    Classic charm meets modern comfort in the heart of Genesee Lawns. Set on a double lot just a stone’s throw from the New Hartford Village Green, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath Tudor offers over 2,000 square feet of living space and thoughtful updates throughout. The real showstopper is the open-concept kitchen and family room featuring vaulted ceilings and skylights. .. a perfect space for entertaining or everyday life. Much of the home features beautiful hardwood floors, and you'll find character-rich details like built-ins surrounding a wood-burning fireplace and French doors. A finished attic space adds flexibility - perfect as a play room or office. A big composite deck, 2-car detached garage, and your own pond complete the package. With quick access to New Hartford shopping, restaurants, and other amenities all in a well-loved neighborhood, what more could you ask for?!

18. 2025-10-30
    price $314,900
19. 2025-10-08
    listed $329,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,768 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,707 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: +$939/yr (+$78/mo · 33.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$2,768
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,222
• − Management: −$2,222
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$4,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,010
• After-tax cash flow: $1,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,931
• Household income: $52,548
• Rent vs Own: 49.2% rent · 50.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2251.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 14% Asian 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: American 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.28%
• Current HPI: 382.3726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $299,900 CNYIS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $314,900 CNYIS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $329,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,768 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.