Blanco Plan · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$279,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Blanco floor plan embodies the ideal home for most any lifestyle with enough space for everyone. This home includes a two-and-a-half-car garage that serves you with the extra space you need to keep your tools, holiday decorations, or for anything else you may need to store! The entrance of the Blanco home boasts a private study room, a powder room with a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror, and an exclusive two-story dining space right down the hall. Connected to the dining space is an open-concept kitchen. The kitchen has everything you want and more - complete with sleek granite counters, ample counterspace, a large walk-in pantry, and even the option for a sizable island! You will then come across the oversized family room, perfect for gatherings with family and friends. If you are looking to embrace the great outdoors, lead the way from your family room to your optional covered patio. Your secluded Master Bedroom awaits down the hall with three windows, letting abundant natural light seep in. Attached is your master bathroom which allows for double vanities with LED down lighting, a linen shelf, a standard shower/bathtub enclosure, and a massive walk-in closet. Want to escalate the master bathroom a tad bit more? Decide to have a master bathroom super shower instead, or a luxury bath for optimal relaxation. You deserve to feel comfortable, relaxed, and at peace in your new home! Heading up the stairs, you will find three additional bedrooms, all with spacious. ..

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Private study room
• Large walk in pantry

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY ROOM
• TWO STORY DINING SPACE
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK IN PANTRY
• OPTIONAL COVERED PATIO
• MASTER BATHROOM SUPER SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,868.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,709 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,868
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -6.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25227 Leather Leaf Ct	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-3%)	1mo	$272,000	$123	81
25140 Gold Dust Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,109 (-8%)	4mo	$270,990	$128	80
25460 Blossom Ct	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,120 (-7%)	0mo	$259,900	$123	80
25415 Blossom Ct	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,120 (-7%)	3mo	$269,900	$127	78
25323 Yellowbells Pl	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,125 (-7%)	1mo	$312,923	$147	78
25291 Leather Leaf Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,197 (-4%)	3mo	$274,990	$125	75
25308 Leather Leaf Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,197 (-4%)	3mo	$274,990	$125	74
25319 Yellowbells Pl	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,049 (-10%)	2mo	$279,135	$136	74
25243 Leather Leaf Ct	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,101 (-8%)	1mo	$265,000	$126	73
25522 Blossom Ct	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-9%)	2mo	$295,848	$142	70
25446 Carnation Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-13%)	1mo	$270,990	$137	60
25300 Leather Leaf Ct	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-13%)	3mo	$268,990	$136	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-69,513
• Equity at exit: $44,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-102,703
• Equity at exit: $26,014

Cash invested: $84,243 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,578
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,513/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,632

Max offer price $267,163

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,217
• Closing costs: $9,026
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,990 Active 429 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 425 DOM
14. 2025-04-01
    listed $279,990 Active 1501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1501 chars)

    The Blanco floor plan embodies the ideal home for most any lifestyle with enough space for everyone. This home includes a two-and-a-half-car garage that serves you with the extra space you need to keep your tools, holiday decorations, or for anything else you may need to store! The entrance of the Blanco home boasts a private study room, a powder room with a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror, and an exclusive two-story dining space right down the hall. Connected to the dining space is an open-concept kitchen. The kitchen has everything you want and more - complete with sleek granite counters, ample counterspace, a large walk-in pantry, and even the option for a sizable island! You will then come across the oversized family room, perfect for gatherings with family and friends. If you are looking to embrace the great outdoors, lead the way from your family room to your optional covered patio. Your secluded Master Bedroom awaits down the hall with three windows, letting abundant natural light seep in. Attached is your master bathroom which allows for double vanities with LED down lighting, a linen shelf, a standard shower/bathtub enclosure, and a massive walk-in closet. Want to escalate the master bathroom a tad bit more? Decide to have a master bathroom super shower instead, or a luxury bath for optimal relaxation. You deserve to feel comfortable, relaxed, and at peace in your new home! Heading up the stairs, you will find three additional bedrooms, all with spacious. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,853
• − Property taxes: −$4,513
• − Insurance: −$1,504
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,244
• − Management: −$2,244
• − Depreciation: −$8,753
• Taxable loss: −$8,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great balance of curb appeal and interior features, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing old flooring with modern materials can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants.
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Regular maintenance can keep the landscaping looking its best and attract more buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing old flooring with modern materials can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Regular maintenance can keep the landscaping looking its best and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $279,990 Zillow