3204 Cyprian Rd · Waco, TX 76655

$311,160

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $318k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Fargo floorplan at Park Meadows in Lorena, Texas, where every square foot is put-to-use with sophistication and comfort. You'll be calling the approximately 1,665 square foot, single-story, 2-car garage, and covered patio your new home. The 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom floorplan is perfect for you with the open concept living area. The kitchen, dining area, and living area creates a spacious environment. You'll find flat panel birch cabinetry and granite countertops in the kitchen. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and corner pantry. The secondary bedrooms are cozy and carpeted, with plenty of closet space. The laundry room and a secondary bathroom are perfectly place next to th

Key facts

• Corner pantry
• Fargo floorplan
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FARGO FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FLAT PANEL BIRCH CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• CORNER PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $311,160

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Address: 3204 Cyprian Rd, Lorena, TX 76655
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1665

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home, Plan: Fargo; Active listing (last modified May 26, 2026)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,594 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,015
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2404 Cambridge	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,469 (-12%)	10mo	$280,000	$191	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-60,247
• Equity at exit: $46,395

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-65,007
• Equity at exit: $26,903

Cash invested: $87,125 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,526 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,632
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,667/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,722

Max offer price $288,751

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,790
• Closing costs: $9,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	43d	1	0.10mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	43d	1	0.14mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	43d	1	0.21mi
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	20d	1	0.37mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	20d	1	0.48mi
3128 Brosnan Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	43d	1	0.54mi
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	43d	1	0.57mi
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	43d	1	0.57mi
9720 Chapel Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	13d	93	1.24mi
1800 Woodgate Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	13d	132	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $311,160 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $311,160 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $311,160 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $311,160 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $311,160 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $311,160 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $311,160 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $311,160 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $311,160 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $311,160 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $311,160 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $311,160 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $311,160 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,430
• − Property taxes: −$4,667
• − Insurance: −$1,556
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,425
• − Management: −$2,425
• − Depreciation: −$9,052
• Taxable loss: −$7,243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,738
• After-tax cash flow: $-120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms is in good condition with a neutral color scheme and well-maintained exterior. It has a good layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value
• Both Ceiling fans — Upgrading ceiling fans can improve air circulation and add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value ↑
• Both Ceiling fans — Upgrading ceiling fans can improve air circulation and add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B