9 Marchelle Ct · Midland, TX 79705

$335,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1967 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 3-bed, 2-bath home on a spacious lot at the end of a tree-lined cul-de-sac. Low-maintenance landscaping in both the front & back yards. Thoughtful layout featuring formal living and dining spaces, & a large, light-filled den boasting vaulted ceilings & beams. The backyard is a true retreat, complete with a wood deck & storage building. Tankless water heater, classic wood shutters, & appliances that have been used once, per the estate. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer all convey with sale. Beautiful built ins throughout the home make for easy storage. Bring offers!

Key facts

• Wood deck
• Spacious lot
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• TREE-LINED CUL-DE-SAC
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• LARGE LIGHT-FILLED DEN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WOOD DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single family home
• Exterior features: Patio; Deck; Wood fencing; Shed; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Built-in bookcases; Wood-burning fireplace in the den; Water softener
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-157/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fannin El (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 603 students, 44% FRL); San Jacinto J H (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 829 students, 54% FRL); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,070 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-56,356
• Equity at exit: $49,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-55,184
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$448 /mo · $5,373/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,967

Max offer price $332,688

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Marchelle Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2714	$3,200	$1.18	43d	1	0.02mi
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	4.0	3.5	2982	$3,650	$1.22	13d	1	0.41mi
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	3.0	3.5	2982	$4,400	$1.48	43d	1	0.41mi
3317 Providence Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,500	$1.38	43d	1	0.58mi
3326 W Dengar Ave Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	21d	1	0.62mi
2900 Goddard Pl Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$3,400	$1.32	13d	1	0.73mi
2900 Goddard Pl Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$3,400	$1.32	21d	1	0.73mi
2100 W Wadley Ave Unit L1 Midland, TX	3.0	3.0	1854	$2,300	$1.24	43d	1	0.76mi
3114 Shell Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2260	$2,999	$1.33	21d	1	0.77mi
3306 Haynes Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	3481	$3,800	$1.09	21d	1	0.79mi
3306 Haynes Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	3481	$3,950	$1.13	43d	1	0.79mi
2404 Goddard Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$3,100	$1.64	21d	1	0.84mi
2404 Northtown Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,700	$1.35	13d	1	0.89mi
2801 Exeter Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2394	$2,900	$1.21	43d	1	0.90mi
3134 Tealwood Pl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,500	$1.27	21d	1	0.92mi
3315 Godfrey St Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–4.0	1764	$2,800	$1.59	13d	8	0.94mi
2204 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2068	$3,000	$1.45	43d	1	1.09mi
2218 N H St Midland, TX	2.0	3.0	2272	$3,500	$1.54	43d	1	1.21mi
4027 Angelina Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2228	$2,900	$1.30	13d	1	1.25mi
1902 N I St Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2178	$2,400	$1.10	43d	1	1.27mi
1413 Ventura Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2400	$2,895	$1.21	43d	1	1.28mi
1603 N L St Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2230	$3,200	$1.43	43d	1	1.31mi
2601 Bedford Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2108	$2,200	$1.04	13d	1	1.32mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$2,800	$1.30	13d	1	1.36mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$2,800	$1.30	21d	1	1.36mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$3,000	$1.39	43d	1	1.36mi
2606 Keswick Cv Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2027	$2,600	$1.28	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-23
   historical
4. 2026-03-20
   listed $335,000 Active
5. 2009-10-08
   soldstatus
6. 1967-11-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,373 · $448/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,130 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: +$757/yr (+$63/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$5,373
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,833
• − Management: −$2,833
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$5,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,396
• After-tax cash flow: $1,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-03-23 Delisted — PBBOR
• 2026-03-20 Listed $335,000 PBBOR
• 2009-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1967-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,373 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.