13309 Winton Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$343,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,809 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 5,749 sqft lot Est $343k · at est. $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Canon - This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner’s suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Flex space

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE
• COVERED PATIO
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $344k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-535 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,117 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.67%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,698
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13309 Winton Dr	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,809 (0%)	1mo	$343,990	$122	99
13316 Winton Dr	0.04mi	5/3.0	2,809 (0%)	3mo	$329,990	$117	96
13300 Winton Dr	0.04mi	5/3.0	2,809 (0%)	5mo	$327,990	$117	94
13305 Winton Dr	0.01mi	5/3.0	2,552 (-9%)	1mo	$318,999	$125	83
13312 Winton Dr	0.03mi	5/3.0	2,552 (-9%)	2mo	$313,990	$123	82
13412 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.11mi	5/3.0	2,516 (-10%)	0mo	$327,990	$130	77
13312 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.10mi	5/3.0	2,516 (-10%)	3mo	$300,990	$120	75
12909 Wood Lily Trl	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,148 (+12%)	22mo	$380,000	$121	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $153,612
• Equity at exit: $309,893

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $479,905
• Equity at exit: $668,297

Cash invested: $96,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,804
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$430 /mo · $5,160/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,079

Max offer price $266,529

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,998
• Closing costs: $10,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	20d	1	0.07mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	21d	1	0.16mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	17d	1	0.16mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	43d	1	0.27mi
12832 Wood Lilly Trl Elgin, TX	6.0	3.5	4122	$2,749	$0.67	43d	1	0.75mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   price $343,990
3. 2026-03-12
   price $341,990
4. 2026-02-16
   listed $353,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,269
• − Property taxes: −$5,160
• − Insurance: −$1,720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$10,007
• Taxable loss: −$12,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,027
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $343,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $341,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $353,990 Unlock MLS