1412 N 15th St · Springfield, IL 62703

$33,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 658 sqft · Other · 72 Days on market

Built 1900 3,360 sqft lot $50/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Investor Special* Currently tenant occupied. Just a short walk to Lanphier High School.

Key facts

• 3,360 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1900

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $33,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$67,236) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($992 rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.7% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $228 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $990 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $31,020 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.26%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,236
• List price: $33,000
• Delta: -50.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $33,893
• Equity at exit: $4,920

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.52×
• Total profit: $97,238
• Equity at exit: $2,853

Cash invested: $9,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $766/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $317

Max offer price $33,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,250
• Closing costs: $990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1036 N Indiana Ave Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,100	$1.64	43d	1	0.37mi
2013 N 11th St Unit B Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	500	$850	$1.70	43d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $33,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $33,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $33,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $33,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $33,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $33,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $33,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $33,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $33,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $33,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $33,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $33,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $33,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $33,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $33,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $33,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $33,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    price $36,000 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    *Investor Special* Currently tenant occupied. Just a short walk to Lanphier High School.

19. 2026-05-06
    listed $42,000 Active 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    *Investor Special* Currently tenant occupied. Just a short walk to Lanphier High School.

20. 2026-04-16
    price $36,000 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    *Investor Special* Currently tenant occupied. Just a short walk to Lanphier High School.

21. 2026-04-08
    listed $42,000 Active 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    *Investor Special* Currently tenant occupied. Just a short walk to Lanphier High School.

22. 2022-04-05
    soldstatus $64,000
23. 2022-04-05
    soldstatus $122,000
24. 2017-10-04
    soldstatus $64,500
25. 2011-10-17
    soldstatus $9,000
26. 2011-03-15
    listed $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $766 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $766 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,849
• − Property taxes: −$766
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$953
• − Management: −$953
• − Depreciation: −$960
• Taxable income: $6,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,503
• After-tax cash flow: $4,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,922
• Household income: $45,009
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1626.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.69%
• Current HPI: 147.0877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.19%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $36,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $42,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $36,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $42,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 2011-10-17 Sold (MLS) $9,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-15 Listed $12,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $766 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.