8373 Ironwood Ave · California City, CA 93505

$255,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2006 9,583 sqft lot $167/sqft · 11% below area Est $287k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice home in a well surroundings of newer homes being built in the Area

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.2% in California City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $72k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $256k implies a 261% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,976 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,536
• List price: $255,999
• Delta: -10.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8348 Lime	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,537 (0%)	1mo	$265,150	$173	91
8348 Fernwood Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+3%)	1mo	$255,000	$162	86
20312 Graham St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-2%)	0mo	$315,000	$208	83
8400 Dogwood Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-0%)	3mo	$300,000	$195	83
7881 Fernwood	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-4%)	1mo	$269,900	$184	68
8873 Holly	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,639 (+7%)	0mo	$260,000	$159	64
8225 Peach Ave	0.41mi	3/4.0	1,629 (+6%)	0mo	$335,000	$206	63
8485 Tamarack Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-10%)	0mo	$205,000	$149	56
8633 Hickory Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,731 (+13%)	2mo	$355,000	$205	56
8038 Hemlock Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,744 (+14%)	1mo	$256,250	$147	56
20925 79th St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+4%)	3mo	$331,500	$207	53
20300 89th St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,731 (+13%)	2mo	$334,000	$193	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $150,246
• Equity at exit: $230,624

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $449,467
• Equity at exit: $497,350

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,157/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $255,999

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20673 Medio St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,075	$1.23	23d	1	0.24mi
20312 Dean Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1742	$1,975	$1.13	14d	1	0.24mi
8160 Kalmia Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,795	$1.41	23d	1	0.27mi
20300 Graham St California City, CA	4.0	2.5	2016	$2,150	$1.07	23d	1	0.30mi
8100 Fernwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,850	$1.38	23d	1	0.31mi
20425 81st St California City, CA	4.0	3.0	2215	$2,900	$1.31	18d	1	0.33mi
8648 Lime Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,400	$1.64	23d	1	0.34mi
8560 Nipa Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,850	$1.41	14d	1	0.35mi
20321 88th St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,100	$1.79	23d	1	0.43mi
8651 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	3d	1	0.43mi
8801 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,600	$1.69	23d	1	0.47mi
20961 83rd St Unit 6 California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	23d	1	0.50mi
20001 Airway Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,400	$2.29	23d	1	0.55mi
8848 Oleander Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,900	$1.46	23d	1	0.59mi
8312 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,900	$1.23	23d	1	0.62mi
8512 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,875	$1.25	23d	1	0.63mi
8449 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,695	$1.39	2d	1	0.69mi
8173 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,150	$1.45	2d	1	0.71mi
8124 Underwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,850	$1.23	23d	1	0.72mi
8260 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,000	$1.49	2d	1	0.73mi
21032 79th St California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1228	$2,100	$1.71	23d	1	0.76mi
9213 Holly Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,900	$1.42	3d	1	0.87mi
8816 Fuchsia Ave Unit PASSTHROUGH B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,550	$1.44	14d	1	0.91mi
9000 Underwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	23d	1	0.92mi
9225 Peach Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	23d	1	0.97mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	23d	1	0.99mi
7733 Walpole Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	23d	1	1.01mi
7343 Dogwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,250	$1.73	23d	1	1.07mi
8849 Glade Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,380	$1.50	10d	1	1.10mi
7317 California City Blvd California City, CA	3.0	1.5	1228	$1,725	$1.40	18d	1	1.18mi
9610 Oleander Ave Unit A California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,575	$1.21	23d	1	1.24mi
8307 Charles Pl California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,750	$1.17	14d	1	1.44mi
8332 Rea Ave California City, CA	4.0	3.0	1861	$2,500	$1.34	3d	1	1.46mi
7113 Victor Pl Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,999 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,999 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,999 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,999 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,999 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,999 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,999 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,999 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,999 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $255,999 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,999 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,999 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,999 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,999 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    status Pending 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Nice home in a well surroundings of newer homes being built in the Area

16. 2026-04-15
    price $255,999 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Nice home in a well surroundings of newer homes being built in the Area

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $279,888 Active 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Nice home in a well surroundings of newer homes being built in the Area

18. 2013-06-07
    soldstatus $71,000 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Short Sale and subject to bank approval. List pice not guaranteed. Beautiful home in a quiet area. 3 bedroom, 2 baths with a cozy firepleace in the living. Covered patio and fenced yard. Natural gas and septic. Short sale. Sales price must be approved by mortgage lender. Approved short sale.

19. 2013-06-07
    soldstatus $71,000

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Short Sale and subject to bank approval. List pice not guaranteed. Beautiful home in a quiet area. 3 bedroom, 2 baths with a cozy firepleace in the living. Covered patio and fenced yard. Natural gas and septic. Short sale. Sales price must be approved by mortgage lender. Approved short sale.

20. 2013-01-02
    listed $70,000 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Short Sale and subject to bank approval. List pice not guaranteed. Beautiful home in a quiet area. 3 bedroom, 2 baths with a cozy firepleace in the living. Covered patio and fenced yard. Natural gas and septic. Short sale. Sales price must be approved by mortgage lender. Approved short sale.

21. 2006-08-30
    soldstatus $220,000
22. 2005-08-03
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,157 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,946 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$788/yr (+$66/mo · 68.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$1,157
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$3,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $1,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+924.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $255,999 AVMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $279,888 AVMLS
• 2013-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-07 Sold (MLS) $71,000 AVMLS
• 2013-01-02 Listed $70,000 AVMLS
• 2006-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,157 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.