133 Hornet (lot 70) Dr · Rockfish, NC 28376

$281,100

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,744 sqft · Other public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2024 7,841 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

UNDER CONSTRUCTION! Est completion date end of January / February! Meet the ‘Engage’ home plan by Dream Finders Homes in Blackhawk Landing. This beautiful home features an open-concept living space on the first floor, thoughtfully designed for comfort and practicality. Discover the convenience of a dedicated laundry room and a half bath, catering to your everyday needs. In the heart of the home, the kitchen boasts a large island that's both a chef's haven and an entertainer's delight. The walk-in pantry is the cherry on top. As you head upstairs, a bright and spacious loft awaits, offering a versatile space that adapts to your needs. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet

Key facts

• Large island
• Spacious loft
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• OWNER'S SUITE WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $281k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($0/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Rockfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#108 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Scurlock Elementary (math 36% / reading 34%, grade F, #825 of 1,410 statewide, top 59%, 619 students, 100% FRL); Sandy Grove Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 645 students, 99% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 575 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,991 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-48,034
• Equity at exit: $41,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,811
• Equity at exit: $24,304

Cash invested: $78,708 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28376

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 575
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,838/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,250

Max offer price $281,100

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $80	+0% $0	+5% $-80	+10% $-159
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-89	+0% $0	+5% $89	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $72	base $0	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,275
• Closing costs: $8,433
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
283 Crowville St , NC	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,200	$1.18	15d	1	0.65mi
136 Bourbon St , NC	3.0	2.5	2147	$2,200	$1.02	25d	1	1.23mi
131 Bourbon (lot 13) ST Raeford, NC	4.0	2.5	1967	$2,400	$1.22	25d	1	1.24mi
163 Bourbon St Raeford, NC	4.0	2.5	1967	$2,400	$1.22	25d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-11-18
   status Pending
2. 2024-09-24
   listed $281,100 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,838 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,305 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$467/yr (+$39/mo · 25.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,746
• − Property taxes: −$1,838
• − Insurance: −$1,406
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,177
• Taxable loss: −$4,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,172
• After-tax cash flow: $1,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rockfish

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #6802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hoke County · 44,880 people
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,880
• Household income: $66,471
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.30%
• Current HPI: 169.1801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-18 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2024-09-24 Listed $281,100 LPRMLS