10504 Earl Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1955 6,499 sqft lot $97/sqft · 12% above area Est $67k · 12% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2 bed 1 bath home located in the Riverview Gardens area! This property offers a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Featuring a functional layout with spacious living areas, this home provides plenty of potential to make it your own. Partially finished basement nearly doubles your living space. The large yard is perfect for outdoor enjoyment, entertaining, or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, and major highways, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. Don’t miss your chance to add your personal touch or expand your investment portfolio! Please contact co-listing agent for all questions and inquiries regarding this listing.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Large yard

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE YARD
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR PARKS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $75k implies a 384% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.31%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,838
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 12.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10429 Earl Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	770 (0%)	1mo	$35,000	$45	95
10504 Duke Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	770 (0%)	9mo	$115,000	$149	90
10417 Duke Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	770 (0%)	7mo	$35,000	$45	88
10348 Earl Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	770 (0%)	4mo	$35,000	$45	84
10465 Lord Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5 (+1)	770 (0%)	11mo	$109,900	$143	80
10365 Lord Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	4mo	$87,000	$101	63
10140 Earl Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	737 (-4%)	10mo	$99,900	$136	57
10019 Lord Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0	795 (+3%)	7mo	$37,999	$48	56
10236 Monarch Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	850 (+10%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	56
10117 Royal Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	49
10117 Duke Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	4mo	$119,900	$139	46
10040 Lord Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0	672 (-13%)	4mo	$10,000	$15	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $43,987
• Equity at exit: $37,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $115,559
• Equity at exit: $59,975

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $624

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	21d	1	0.13mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	14d	1	0.14mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	3d	1	0.16mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	23d	1	0.18mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	7d	1	0.20mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	1d	1	0.22mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	14d	1	0.22mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	0.22mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	0.35mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	43d	1	0.53mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	43d	1	0.57mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.58mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	43d	1	0.59mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	23d	1	0.66mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	23d	1	0.74mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	23d	1	0.78mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	14d	1	0.86mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	17d	1	0.86mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	23d	1	0.90mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.90mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	21d	1	0.92mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	1.02mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	1.02mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	1.03mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	4d	1	1.05mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	43d	1	1.08mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	10d	1	1.09mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	1.12mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	43d	1	1.13mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	2d	1	1.13mi
10508 Druid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,475	$1.31	16d	1	1.13mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	16d	1	1.14mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	43d	1	1.14mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	43d	1	1.22mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	7d	1	1.23mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	43d	1	1.33mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	1.39mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	1.44mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	1.45mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-21
   price $75,000 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 2 bed 1 bath home located in the Riverview Gardens area! This property offers a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Featuring a functional layout with spacious living areas, this home provides plenty of potential to make it your own. Partially finished basement nearly doubles your living space. The large yard is perfect for outdoor enjoyment, entertaining, or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, and major highways, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. Don’t miss your chance to add your personal touch or expand your investment portfolio! Please contact co-listing agent for all questions and inquiries regarding this listing.

2. 2026-04-15
   price $90,000 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 2 bed 1 bath home located in the Riverview Gardens area! This property offers a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Featuring a functional layout with spacious living areas, this home provides plenty of potential to make it your own. Partially finished basement nearly doubles your living space. The large yard is perfect for outdoor enjoyment, entertaining, or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, and major highways, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. Don’t miss your chance to add your personal touch or expand your investment portfolio! Please contact co-listing agent for all questions and inquiries regarding this listing.

3. 2026-04-10
   historical $950
4. 2026-03-21
   listed $100,000 Active 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 2 bed 1 bath home located in the Riverview Gardens area! This property offers a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Featuring a functional layout with spacious living areas, this home provides plenty of potential to make it your own. Partially finished basement nearly doubles your living space. The large yard is perfect for outdoor enjoyment, entertaining, or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, and major highways, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. Don’t miss your chance to add your personal touch or expand your investment portfolio! Please contact co-listing agent for all questions and inquiries regarding this listing.

5. 2025-12-06
   price $950
6. 2025-11-12
   price $1,000
7. 2025-10-22
   listed $1,075
8. 2025-05-23
   historical $1,000
9. 2025-05-13
   listed $1,000
10. 2011-12-21
    soldstatus $15,500
11. 2010-04-13
    soldstatus $38,000
12. 2005-10-17
    soldstatus $32,883

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,101
• After-tax cash flow: $4,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+128.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Rental Removed $950 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-21 Listed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $950 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $1,000 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-10-22 Listed for Rent $1,075 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-23 Rental Removed $1,000 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-13 Listed for Rent $1,000 SHOWMOJO
• 2011-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 2010-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $32,883 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $822 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.