504 Jordan St · Keenesburg, CO 80643

$381,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,439 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2021 4,791 sqft lot Est $441k · 14% under $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The stunning 4 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom Roosevelt plan has all of the space that you need. In the kitchen, you will appreciate a spacious kitchen island, large cabinets with crown molding, beautiful granite countertops and a complete suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool® appliances. This incredible kitchen overlooks the dining room which opens into the family room. The additional downstairs den provides plenty of extra space, making this the perfect home for entertaining! The upstairs master retreat includes a separate shower and tub as well as a large walk-in closets. There are also three additional bedrooms upstairs and a flex space that gives you creative freedom to create a personalized space perfect for you and your family.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $381k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $375k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.8% in Keenesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#296 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Weld County School District Re-3J (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #64 of 86 in CO (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hoff Elementary School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #747 of 966 statewide, top 80%, 319 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,285 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $441,459
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
595 E Kiser Ave	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,324 (-5%)	4mo	$370,000	$159	79
15 Johnson Cir	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,595 (+6%)	8mo	$445,000	$171	66
70 S Lambert St	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,460 (+1%)	12mo	$492,100	$200	59
520 E Kiser Ave	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,772 (+14%)	10mo	$490,000	$177	58
105 Johnson Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,618 (+7%)	10mo	$445,500	$170	57
25 Johnson Cir	0.36mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,248 (-8%)	11mo	$407,000	$181	56
210 E Gandy Ave	0.63mi	4/1.0	2,520 (+3%)	2mo	$158,000	$63	55
60 N Miller St	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,616 (+7%)	22mo	$485,000	$185	48
320 E Lambert Ct	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,494 (+2%)	23mo	$490,000	$196	45
255 S Trader St	0.71mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,500 (+2%)	21mo	$485,000	$194	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-31,361
• Equity at exit: $56,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $11,726
• Equity at exit: $32,942

Cash invested: $106,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80643

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,998
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,562/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$790
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,156

Max offer price $381,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,250
• Closing costs: $11,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $381,000 Active
3. 2025-10-10
   historical
4. 2025-10-10
   historical
5. 2025-10-03
   price $379,900
6. 2025-10-03
   price $379,900
7. 2025-09-19
   price $399,900
8. 2025-09-19
   price $399,900
9. 2025-08-10
   listed $410,000 Active
10. 2025-08-10
    listed $410,000 Active
11. 2021-11-08
    soldstatus $473,900 Closed 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    The stunning 4 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom Roosevelt plan has all of the space that you need. In the kitchen, you will appreciate a spacious kitchen island, large cabinets with crown molding, beautiful granite countertops and a complete suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool® appliances. This incredible kitchen overlooks the dining room which opens into the family room. The additional downstairs den provides plenty of extra space, making this the perfect home for entertaining! The upstairs master retreat includes a separate shower and tub as well as a large walk-in closets. There are also three additional bedrooms upstairs and a flex space that gives you creative freedom to create a personalized space perfect for you and your family.

12. 2021-11-08
    soldstatus $473,900 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    The stunning 4 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom Roosevelt plan has all of the space that you need. In the kitchen, you will appreciate a spacious kitchen island, large cabinets with crown molding, beautiful granite countertops and a complete suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool® appliances. This incredible kitchen overlooks the dining room which opens into the family room. The additional downstairs den provides plenty of extra space, making this the perfect home for entertaining! The upstairs master retreat includes a separate shower and tub as well as a large walk-in closets. There are also three additional bedrooms upstairs and a flex space that gives you creative freedom to create a personalized space perfect for you and your family.

13. 2021-05-05
    status Pending 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    The stunning 4 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom Roosevelt plan has all of the space that you need. In the kitchen, you will appreciate a spacious kitchen island, large cabinets with crown molding, beautiful granite countertops and a complete suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool® appliances. This incredible kitchen overlooks the dining room which opens into the family room. The additional downstairs den provides plenty of extra space, making this the perfect home for entertaining! The upstairs master retreat includes a separate shower and tub as well as a large walk-in closets. There are also three additional bedrooms upstairs and a flex space that gives you creative freedom to create a personalized space perfect for you and your family.

14. 2021-05-02
    price $473,900 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    The stunning 4 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom Roosevelt plan has all of the space that you need. In the kitchen, you will appreciate a spacious kitchen island, large cabinets with crown molding, beautiful granite countertops and a complete suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool® appliances. This incredible kitchen overlooks the dining room which opens into the family room. The additional downstairs den provides plenty of extra space, making this the perfect home for entertaining! The upstairs master retreat includes a separate shower and tub as well as a large walk-in closets. There are also three additional bedrooms upstairs and a flex space that gives you creative freedom to create a personalized space perfect for you and your family.

15. 2021-04-24
    price $457,900 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    The stunning 4 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom Roosevelt plan has all of the space that you need. In the kitchen, you will appreciate a spacious kitchen island, large cabinets with crown molding, beautiful granite countertops and a complete suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool® appliances. This incredible kitchen overlooks the dining room which opens into the family room. The additional downstairs den provides plenty of extra space, making this the perfect home for entertaining! The upstairs master retreat includes a separate shower and tub as well as a large walk-in closets. There are also three additional bedrooms upstairs and a flex space that gives you creative freedom to create a personalized space perfect for you and your family.

16. 2021-04-16
    listed $456,900 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    The stunning 4 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom Roosevelt plan has all of the space that you need. In the kitchen, you will appreciate a spacious kitchen island, large cabinets with crown molding, beautiful granite countertops and a complete suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool® appliances. This incredible kitchen overlooks the dining room which opens into the family room. The additional downstairs den provides plenty of extra space, making this the perfect home for entertaining! The upstairs master retreat includes a separate shower and tub as well as a large walk-in closets. There are also three additional bedrooms upstairs and a flex space that gives you creative freedom to create a personalized space perfect for you and your family.

17. 2021-04-16
    listed $473,900 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    The stunning 4 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom Roosevelt plan has all of the space that you need. In the kitchen, you will appreciate a spacious kitchen island, large cabinets with crown molding, beautiful granite countertops and a complete suite of stainless-steel Whirlpool® appliances. This incredible kitchen overlooks the dining room which opens into the family room. The additional downstairs den provides plenty of extra space, making this the perfect home for entertaining! The upstairs master retreat includes a separate shower and tub as well as a large walk-in closets. There are also three additional bedrooms upstairs and a flex space that gives you creative freedom to create a personalized space perfect for you and your family.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,562 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,562 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,342
• − Property taxes: −$3,562
• − Insurance: −$1,905
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,610
• − Management: −$3,610
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$11,084
• Taxable loss: −$464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$111
• After-tax cash flow: $5,840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County School District Re-3J
• NCES district ID: 0804920
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,814
• Composite: 22.63/100
• National rank: #8062
• State rank: #64 of 86 in CO

Livability — Keenesburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #20911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keenesburg, CO
• City population: 4,257
• Population (ZIP): 4,257

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.47%
• Current HPI: 287.5564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — IRES
• 2026-03-16 Listed $381,000 IRES
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $379,900 IRES
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $379,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $399,900 IRES
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $399,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-10 Listed $410,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-10 Listed $410,000 IRES
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $473,900 IRES
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $473,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-05 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-02 Price Changed $473,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-24 Price Changed $457,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-16 Listed $473,900 IRES
• 2021-04-16 Listed $456,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+140.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,562 · -20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.