Champion Duck River Estates Plan · Columbia, TN 38401

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured · 186 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is perfectly located near the serene Duck River. The spacious kitchen with a large island is ideal for cooking and entertaining. Enjoy the luxurious primary suite with a beautiful en-suite bathroom featuring a tile shower, garden tub, and double sink vanity. Step outside to the deck facing the Duck River for a peaceful spot to unwind and enjoy nature. Book your tour today! We look forward to helping you find your dream home.

Key facts

• Listed 186 days

🏗️ New construction. The $199,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.8% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1118 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,900
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -33.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,377
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,568
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1118
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $259,940

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
552 Nightengale Ridge Dr , TN	3.0	2.5	2163	$2,500	$1.16	12d	1	1.27mi
1827 Goldsberry St Columbia, TN	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,795	$1.19	16d	1	1.28mi
721 Poplar St Unit A Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	43d	1	1.44mi
721 Poplar St Unit B Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	2d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-05-20
   status Active 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is perfectly located near the serene Duck River. The spacious kitchen with a large island is ideal for cooking and entertaining. Enjoy the luxurious primary suite with a beautiful en-suite bathroom featuring a tile shower, garden tub, and double sink vanity. Step outside to the deck facing the Duck River for a peaceful spot to unwind and enjoy nature. Book your tour today! We look forward to helping you find your dream home.

9. 2026-05-20
   price $179,900 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is perfectly located near the serene Duck River. The spacious kitchen with a large island is ideal for cooking and entertaining. Enjoy the luxurious primary suite with a beautiful en-suite bathroom featuring a tile shower, garden tub, and double sink vanity. Step outside to the deck facing the Duck River for a peaceful spot to unwind and enjoy nature. Book your tour today! We look forward to helping you find your dream home.

10. 2026-03-14
    price $199,900 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers everything you need for modern living. With a bright, open floor plan, it's perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The large kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and a large pantry, will inspire your inner chef. In addition, the luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a spacious bedroom and an expansive walk-in closet. The finished drywall throughout gives the home a sleek, polished feel, while the built-in entertainment center in the living room makes it perfect for movie nights or hosting friends. Book your tour today! We look forward to working with you.

11. 2025-12-19
    price $206,000 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers everything you need for modern living. With a bright, open floor plan, it's perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The large kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and a large pantry, will inspire your inner chef. In addition, the luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a spacious bedroom and an expansive walk-in closet. The finished drywall throughout gives the home a sleek, polished feel, while the built-in entertainment center in the living room makes it perfect for movie nights or hosting friends. Book your tour today! We look forward to working with you.

12. 2025-12-05
    listed $219,000 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers everything you need for modern living. With a bright, open floor plan, it's perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The large kitchen, featuring sleek stainless steel appliances and a large pantry, will inspire your inner chef. In addition, the luxurious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a spacious bedroom and an expansive walk-in closet. The finished drywall throughout gives the home a sleek, polished feel, while the built-in entertainment center in the living room makes it perfect for movie nights or hosting friends. Book your tour today! We look forward to working with you.

13. 2025-11-13
    historical 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is perfectly located near the serene Duck River. The spacious kitchen with a large island is ideal for cooking and entertaining. Enjoy the luxurious primary suite with a beautiful en-suite bathroom featuring a tile shower, garden tub, and double sink vanity. Step outside to the deck facing the Duck River for a peaceful spot to unwind and enjoy nature. Book your tour today! We look forward to helping you find your dream home.

14. 2025-09-09
    listed $184,000 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is perfectly located near the serene Duck River. The spacious kitchen with a large island is ideal for cooking and entertaining. Enjoy the luxurious primary suite with a beautiful en-suite bathroom featuring a tile shower, garden tub, and double sink vanity. Step outside to the deck facing the Duck River for a peaceful spot to unwind and enjoy nature. Book your tour today! We look forward to helping you find your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$2,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$8,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,054
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Champion Duck River Estates offers a good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, roof, exterior, flooring, and interior walls/paint. The home is in good condition and ready for a new owner. The home has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both New flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both New flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 121,382 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2026.0

Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $179,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $206,000 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Listed $219,000 Zillow
• 2025-11-13 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-09 Listed $184,000 Zillow