3210 Hickory Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1999 3,729 sqft lot Est $128k · 9% over $217/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Screened-in patio
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENGINEERED HARDWOOD FLOORING
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SCREENED-IN PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual association fees reported
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Timber Lake Estates community; Association amenities include clubhouse, playground, pool and recreation facilities; Association maintains common grounds and utilities (water, sewer) and common area taxes; Buyer approval required for association; Monthly association fee $217; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; size limits apply); Deed restrictions and community mailbox; golf carts permitted

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces west; Corner lot, level and private
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Patio (screened); Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $139k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	988 (+3%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	83
34616 Morning Glory Gln	0.62mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	65
3915 Julie Dr	0.72mi	2/1.5	964 (+0%)	6mo	$90,000	$93	58
34135 Brown Byu	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+13%)	10mo	$160,000	$148	56
3906 Sarah Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	936 (-2%)	7mo	$128,000	$137	55
34630 Petunia Pl	0.62mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	10mo	$115,000	$133	46
3010 Whispering Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+15%)	15mo	$172,000	$156	46
34704 Morning Glory Gln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	888 (-8%)	6mo	$60,000	$68	46
34645 Lily Ln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	45
3921 Chris Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	8mo	$142,500	$135	42
3914 Kim Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	12mo	$145,000	$137	39
34632 Sweetpea Ln	0.63mi	2/1.0	816 (-15%)	6mo	$70,000	$86	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,559
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,908
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,697/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,450

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	14d	1	0.32mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	24d	1	0.66mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	0.90mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	12d	71	1.35mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,208	$2.16	2d	46	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    listed $139,000 Active
15. 2005-05-03
    soldstatus $46,000 1-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1 chars)

    .

16. 2005-02-01
    listed $59,900 1-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1 chars)

    .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,697
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$290
• After-tax cash flow: $2,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+132.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-03 Sold (MLS) $46,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-01 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,697 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.