22547 W Duane Ln · Surprise, AZ 85361

$294,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2002 0.92 ac lot $121/sqft · 17% below area Est $356k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 2,432 sq ft of living space on 0.92 acres / 40,061 sq ft. Built in 2002, this property presents a great chance for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic improvements while enjoying the benefits of space, views, and solid major components. The home features vaulted ceilings, a cozy gas fireplace, and dual-pane windows that bring in natural light throughout the spacious floor plan. The primary suite includes a relaxing sitting area and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat within the home. Outside, enjoy beautiful mountain views and ideal north-south exposure, offering both scenic surroundings and efficient sun orientation. Several major systems have already been updated, including a newer roof (replaced approximately 2017) and a 14 SEER AC unit installed in 2017, providing a solid foundation for future improvements. This property does require cosmetic work and is priced accordingly. Needed improvements include interior paint, drywall repair, wallpaper removal, and replacement of missing molding around the kitchen cabinets and portions of the front exterior. Some ceiling staining remains from the previous roof prior to replacement. The pool is currently empty and non-operational, with an estimated $4,000 pump replacement or potential full remodel around $20,000 depending on buyer preference. Situated on 0.92 acres, the lot offers ample room for outdoor improvements, storage, recreational space, or future customization. This home is being marketed as a fix-up opportunity and is ideal for contractors, investors, or buyers seeking land, space, and the ability to build equity with improvements. With its size, lot, views, and key system updates already completed, this property presents a strong value-add opportunity.

Key facts

• Living space
• Manufactured home
• Dual-pane windows

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• LIVING SPACE
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $295k implies a 293% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,593 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,169
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -17.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22615 W Montanoso Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,442 (+0%)	2mo	$320,000	$131	63
29928 N 222nd Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,194 (-10%)	3mo	$324,900	$148	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $149,805
• Equity at exit: $265,669

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.44×
• Total profit: $449,259
• Equity at exit: $572,926

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,088/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,228

Max offer price $265,320

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $294,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-04-30
   price $294,900 1832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1832 chars)

   Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 2,432 sq ft of living space on 0.92 acres / 40,061 sq ft. Built in 2002, this property presents a great chance for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic improvements while enjoying the benefits of space, views, and solid major components. The home features vaulted ceilings, a cozy gas fireplace, and dual-pane windows that bring in natural light throughout the spacious floor plan. The primary suite includes a relaxing sitting area and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat within the home. Outside, enjoy beautiful mountain views and ideal north-south exposure, offering both scenic surroundings and efficient sun orientation. Several major systems have already been updated, including a newer roof (replaced approximately 2017) and a 14 SEER AC unit installed in 2017, providing a solid foundation for future improvements. This property does require cosmetic work and is priced accordingly. Needed improvements include interior paint, drywall repair, wallpaper removal, and replacement of missing molding around the kitchen cabinets and portions of the front exterior. Some ceiling staining remains from the previous roof prior to replacement. The pool is currently empty and non-operational, with an estimated $4,000 pump replacement or potential full remodel around $20,000 depending on buyer preference. Situated on 0.92 acres, the lot offers ample room for outdoor improvements, storage, recreational space, or future customization. This home is being marketed as a fix-up opportunity and is ideal for contractors, investors, or buyers seeking land, space, and the ability to build equity with improvements. With its size, lot, views, and key system updates already completed, this property presents a strong value-add opportunity.

10. 2026-03-20
    price $299,900 1832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1832 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 2,432 sq ft of living space on 0.92 acres / 40,061 sq ft. Built in 2002, this property presents a great chance for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic improvements while enjoying the benefits of space, views, and solid major components. The home features vaulted ceilings, a cozy gas fireplace, and dual-pane windows that bring in natural light throughout the spacious floor plan. The primary suite includes a relaxing sitting area and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat within the home. Outside, enjoy beautiful mountain views and ideal north-south exposure, offering both scenic surroundings and efficient sun orientation. Several major systems have already been updated, including a newer roof (replaced approximately 2017) and a 14 SEER AC unit installed in 2017, providing a solid foundation for future improvements. This property does require cosmetic work and is priced accordingly. Needed improvements include interior paint, drywall repair, wallpaper removal, and replacement of missing molding around the kitchen cabinets and portions of the front exterior. Some ceiling staining remains from the previous roof prior to replacement. The pool is currently empty and non-operational, with an estimated $4,000 pump replacement or potential full remodel around $20,000 depending on buyer preference. Situated on 0.92 acres, the lot offers ample room for outdoor improvements, storage, recreational space, or future customization. This home is being marketed as a fix-up opportunity and is ideal for contractors, investors, or buyers seeking land, space, and the ability to build equity with improvements. With its size, lot, views, and key system updates already completed, this property presents a strong value-add opportunity.

11. 2026-03-06
    listed $319,900 Active 1832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1832 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering 2,432 sq ft of living space on 0.92 acres / 40,061 sq ft. Built in 2002, this property presents a great chance for buyers looking to add value through cosmetic improvements while enjoying the benefits of space, views, and solid major components. The home features vaulted ceilings, a cozy gas fireplace, and dual-pane windows that bring in natural light throughout the spacious floor plan. The primary suite includes a relaxing sitting area and walk-in closet, creating a comfortable retreat within the home. Outside, enjoy beautiful mountain views and ideal north-south exposure, offering both scenic surroundings and efficient sun orientation. Several major systems have already been updated, including a newer roof (replaced approximately 2017) and a 14 SEER AC unit installed in 2017, providing a solid foundation for future improvements. This property does require cosmetic work and is priced accordingly. Needed improvements include interior paint, drywall repair, wallpaper removal, and replacement of missing molding around the kitchen cabinets and portions of the front exterior. Some ceiling staining remains from the previous roof prior to replacement. The pool is currently empty and non-operational, with an estimated $4,000 pump replacement or potential full remodel around $20,000 depending on buyer preference. Situated on 0.92 acres, the lot offers ample room for outdoor improvements, storage, recreational space, or future customization. This home is being marketed as a fix-up opportunity and is ideal for contractors, investors, or buyers seeking land, space, and the ability to build equity with improvements. With its size, lot, views, and key system updates already completed, this property presents a strong value-add opportunity.

12. 2026-01-01
    historical
13. 2025-05-30
    price $350,000
14. 2025-03-28
    listed $383,000 Active
15. 2014-02-26
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed
16. 2014-02-13
    status Pending
17. 2014-01-20
    price $79,900
18. 2013-12-24
    price $88,900
19. 2013-11-26
    listed $96,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,088 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,946 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$858/yr (+$72/mo · 78.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$1,088
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$7,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 160,031
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+204.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $294,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $319,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $383,000 ARMLS
• 2014-02-26 Sold (MLS) $75,000 ARMLS
• 2014-02-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2014-01-20 Price Changed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2013-12-24 Price Changed $88,900 ARMLS
• 2013-11-26 Listed $96,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,088 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.