15410 Empanada Dr · Mission Bend, TX 77083

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,083 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1977 8,398 sqft lot $96/sqft · 19% below area Est $247k · 19% under $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 15410 Empanada Dr Houston,TX !

Key facts

• 8,398 sq ft lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($416/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Mission Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $200k implies a 264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,011
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -19.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15410 Empanada Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$96	90
15414 Empanada Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,228 (+7%)	1mo	$319,000	$143	76
15427 Rio Plaza Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,992 (-4%)	1mo	$225,000	$113	72
15519 Montesa Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,017 (-3%)	1mo	$289,000	$143	60
15818 Beechnut St	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,040 (-2%)	1mo	$270,000	$132	60
15119 Mira Vista Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,302 (+10%)	0mo	$225,000	$98	58
7107 Mission Bay Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,383 (+14%)	1mo	$335,000	$141	58
15319 La Paloma Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,223 (+7%)	2mo	$299,900	$135	58
14938 Mesita Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,253 (+8%)	2mo	$289,999	$129	55
8118 Vista Del Sol Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,868 (-10%)	1mo	$269,000	$144	47
15211 Paladora Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,380 (+14%)	2mo	$271,999	$114	32
15214 El Padre Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,381 (+14%)	1mo	$315,000	$132	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,293
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,668
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77083

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,924/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,980

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7214 Addicks Clodine Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1969	$1,900	$0.96	5d	1	0.48mi
6514 Winkleman Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2225	$2,095	$0.94	12d	1	0.65mi
15511 Evergreen Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,786	$1.09	5d	1	0.77mi
7431 Navidad Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$1,621	$0.85	43d	1	0.82mi
15306 Evergreen Place Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,730	$1.00	24d	1	1.06mi
16311 Paso Hondo Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1449	$1,723	$1.19	43d	1	1.11mi
7010 Santa Rita Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,200	$0.91	43d	1	1.12mi
15406 Lynford Crest Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2740	$2,200	$0.80	4d	1	1.22mi
16243 April Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2189	$2,295	$1.05	43d	1	1.23mi
16131 April Ridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,000	$1.12	43d	1	1.27mi
15706 Tammany Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,816	$1.28	12d	1	1.39mi
7211 Crescent Mills Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1878	$8,850	$4.71	43d	1	1.41mi
7211 Crescent Mills Dr Unit 1521536P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$6,487	$3.47	43d	1	1.41mi
7207 Crescent Mills Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$8,850	$5.06	43d	1	1.42mi
16717 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$2,335	$2.24	2d	38	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 41-char remark

   Show marketing remark (41 chars)

   Welcome to 15410 Empanada Dr Houston,TX !

2. 2026-04-28
   status Active 41-char remark

   Show marketing remark (41 chars)

   Welcome to 15410 Empanada Dr Houston,TX !

3. 2026-04-25
   status Pending 41-char remark

   Show marketing remark (41 chars)

   Welcome to 15410 Empanada Dr Houston,TX !

4. 2026-04-25
   historical 41-char remark

   Show marketing remark (41 chars)

   Welcome to 15410 Empanada Dr Houston,TX !

5. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 41-char remark

   Show marketing remark (41 chars)

   Welcome to 15410 Empanada Dr Houston,TX !

6. 2026-04-14
   listed $200,000 Active 41-char remark

   Show marketing remark (41 chars)

   Welcome to 15410 Empanada Dr Houston,TX !

7. 2026-04-14
   historical

   Show marketing remark (41 chars)

   Welcome to 15410 Empanada Dr Houston,TX !

8. 2026-01-25
   listed $230,000 Active
9. 2026-01-25
   historical
10. 2025-08-18
    listed $260,000 Active
11. 2006-06-13
    soldstatus
12. 2005-11-29
    historical
13. 2004-03-08
    listed $105,000
14. 2003-10-26
    historical
15. 2003-05-20
    listed $104,900
16. 1989-10-23
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,924 · $410/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,924 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,924
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$673
• After-tax cash flow: $1,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission Bend

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #13356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission Bend, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 74,843
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 73,230
• Household income: $64,418
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2410.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 30% Asian 23% Two or more races 14% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 11% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.00%
• Current HPI: 271.2157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+263.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2006-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-03-08 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2003-10-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-05-20 Listed $104,900 HARMLS
• 1989-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,924 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.