M-18 Plan · Oak Point, TX 75068

$116,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · Manufactured · 377 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious & Stylish Living in the J78H by Oak Creek Homes | 4 Bed, 2 Bath, 1,365 Sq. Ft. Welcome to the J78H model by Oak Creek Homes, where modern design meets everyday comfort. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spans 1,365 sq. ft. , offering a smart and spacious layout ideal for growing families or those who love to entertain. At the heart of the home is a large kitchen featuring a central island, ample storage space, and stainless steel appliances—perfect for home chefs and family gatherings alike. The open-concept living area includes a built-in entertainment center and a ceiling beam treatment, adding warmth and character to the space. The private master suite is a true retreat, featuring a deck tub, separate shower, dual vanity sinks, and a generously sized walk-in closet. With thoughtful design, quality finishes, and plenty of room to grow, the J78H is the perfect place to call home.

Key facts

• Central island
• Ample storage space
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• AMPLE STORAGE SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• BUILT-IN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 3.4% in Oak Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#887 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $802 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 377 days — a 12% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $102,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 377 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.11%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $40,129
• Equity at exit: $17,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $93,395
• Equity at exit: $10,030

Cash invested: $32,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,740/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $1,031

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $116,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,000
• Closing costs: $3,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8924 Whirlwind Trl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,995	$1.39	17d	1	0.19mi
8905 Deadwood Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,290	$1.63	15d	1	0.21mi
3140 Brazoria Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1809	$2,895	$1.60	4d	1	0.29mi
8732 Whirlwind Trl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,095	$1.13	43d	1	0.31mi
9105 Buckeye Bnd Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,565	$1.38	20d	1	0.36mi
9225 Buckeye Bnd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	1854	$2,600	$1.40	12d	1	0.41mi
1108 Cheyenne Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	4d	1	0.44mi
1108 Longhorn Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,450	$1.47	43d	1	0.54mi
8821 Tumbleweed Dr Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,950	$1.42	18d	1	0.60mi
832 Cheyenne Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,300	$1.62	24d	1	0.62mi
8621 Chisholm Trl Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,795	$1.31	43d	1	0.67mi
9005 Holliday Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1557	$2,100	$1.35	11d	1	0.69mi
8929 Holliday Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,895	$1.58	3d	1	0.70mi
529 Cheyenne Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,979	$1.31	3d	1	0.71mi
9016 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,795	$1.40	7d	1	0.77mi
571 Lloyd's Rd Little Elm, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1751	$2,719	$1.55	1d	32	0.79mi
9005 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$2,300	$1.91	17d	1	0.80mi
9004 Eastwood Ave Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,750	$1.45	12d	1	0.83mi
8801 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,850	$1.53	18d	1	0.85mi
608 Crazy Horse Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,155	$1.62	43d	1	0.90mi
508 Crazy Horse Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,579	$1.42	3d	1	0.93mi
8923 Redford Rd Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,945	$1.62	43d	1	0.97mi
8919 Redford Rd Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,950	$1.27	24d	1	0.98mi
4480 FM 720 Aubrey, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$2,319	$2.29	12d	24	1.28mi
4229 Brindley Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,895	$1.14	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $116,000 Active 377 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $116,000 Active 376 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $116,000 Active 375 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $116,000 Active 374 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $116,000 Active 372 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $116,000 Active 368 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $116,000 Active 367 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $116,000 Active 366 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $116,000 Active 363 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $116,000 Active 362 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $116,000 Active 361 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $116,000 Active 360 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $116,000 Active 359 DOM
14. 2025-06-06
    listed $116,000 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Spacious & Stylish Living in the J78H by Oak Creek Homes | 4 Bed, 2 Bath, 1,365 Sq. Ft. Welcome to the J78H model by Oak Creek Homes, where modern design meets everyday comfort. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spans 1,365 sq. ft. , offering a smart and spacious layout ideal for growing families or those who love to entertain. At the heart of the home is a large kitchen featuring a central island, ample storage space, and stainless steel appliances—perfect for home chefs and family gatherings alike. The open-concept living area includes a built-in entertainment center and a ceiling beam treatment, adding warmth and character to the space. The private master suite is a true retreat, featuring a deck tub, separate shower, dual vanity sinks, and a generously sized walk-in closet. With thoughtful design, quality finishes, and plenty of room to grow, the J78H is the perfect place to call home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,498
• − Property taxes: −$1,740
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,228
• − Management: −$2,228
• − Depreciation: −$3,375
• Taxable income: $11,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,687
• After-tax cash flow: $9,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with a good layout and modern finishes. It's move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Reorganizing furniture for better flow — Improves functionality and visual appeal
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Reorganizing furniture for better flow — Improves functionality and visual appeal ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Point

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #15941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-06 Listed $116,000 Zillow