20 Dublin Hill Rd · Aurora, NY 13026

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1850 0.26 ac lot Est $161k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this opportunity to own a 2 bedroom/ 2 bathroom home very close to the eastern shoreline of Cayuga Lake at an affordable price! 20 Dublin Hill Road offers an opportunity to own a home in one of the Finger Lakes' most picturesque and sought-after destinations. Located in the historic village of Aurora, the property enjoys a peaceful setting with easy access to the lake, local attractions, and renowned wine country. While the home would benefit from some updating, it presents tremendous potential as a comfortable year-round residence, a weekend getaway, or a profitable short-term rental (if zoning allows). Whether you're looking for a home away from home or an investment property

Key facts

• Easy access to lake
• Local attractions
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO LAKE
• LOCAL ATTRACTIONS
• RENOWNED WINE COUNTRY
• PROFITABLE SHORT TERM RENTAL
• HEART OF THE FINGER LAKES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.26 acres (approx. 70 x 162 feet)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached not specified — total 2 parking spaces, 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Lot is level and cleared; Main road frontage about 70 feet
• Construction: Stone foundation; Construction materials: Other; Living area reported as 978
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first floor, one on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type: Other)
• Interior features: Partial basement; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#530 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southern Cayuga Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #214 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $180k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.54%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Wells Rd	0.24mi	2/1.0	908 (-7%)	0mo	$150,000	$165	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $150,363
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.97×
• Total profit: $401,783
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13026

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,905/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,905 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,974 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,905
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,530
• − Management: −$2,530
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $7,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,785
• After-tax cash flow: $8,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Cayuga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627570
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $61,177
• Composite: 52.98/100
• National rank: #1524
• State rank: #214 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #9549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,703

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.77%
• Current HPI: 410.3875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $180,000 Global MLS
• 2002-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records
• 1994-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,905 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.