73 Camino Rio · Toms River, NJ 08755

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Good condition $209/sqft · 26% below area Est $257k · 26% under $424/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this impressive yet affordable three bed/one bath modular home that truly has it all. Enter a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, a sleek range hood, extra cabinetry and a stunning butcher block island. This home offers low cost HOA in an all-age community. Major updates include 2 year old roof with gutter guards, brand new hot water heater, 1 year old air conditioner and furnace. All bedrooms have new windows and the home comes fully furnished just turn key ready. New paved driveway that fits 3 cars. Outside are 2 sheds and a gazebo.. Outside water line was insulated and plumbing under the sink updated. You truly have the complete package-stylish, comfortable and reasonably priced.

Key facts

• 2 year old roof
• Low cost hoa
• New hot water heater

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUTCHER BLOCK ISLAND
• LOW COST HOA
• 2 YEAR OLD ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $842 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.99%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,056
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -26.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Camino Roble	0.04mi	3/1.0	970 (+7%)	3mo	$150,000	$155	84
2102 Massachusetts Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,044 (+15%)	6mo	$475,000	$455	56
342 Stuart Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,036 (+14%)	10mo	$381,250	$368	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $23,135
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $90,419
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$424
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $842

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,198

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $424 · $5,088/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-04-04
    listed $189,900 Active 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    Discover this impressive yet affordable three bed/one bath modular home that truly has it all. Enter a beautifully updated kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, a sleek range hood, extra cabinetry and a stunning butcher block island. This home offers low cost HOA in an all-age community. Major updates include 2 year old roof with gutter guards, brand new hot water heater, 1 year old air conditioner and furnace. All bedrooms have new windows and the home comes fully furnished just turn key ready. New paved driveway that fits 3 cars. Outside are 2 sheds and a gazebo.. Outside water line was insulated and plumbing under the sink updated. You truly have the complete package-stylish, comfortable and reasonably priced.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,133
• − Management: −$3,133
• − HOA: −$5,088
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $7,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,883
• After-tax cash flow: $8,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, updated three-bedroom home offers a stylish and functional living space with low HOA fees and modern amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Reorganizing furniture for better flow — Improves functionality and visual appeal
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Reorganizing furniture for better flow — Improves functionality and visual appeal ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $189,900 MOMLS