461 Plante Rd · Caribou, ME 04736

$139,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 322 Days on market

Built 1985 0.46 ac lot $97/sqft · 27% below area Est $192k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice country location just minutes from town. Many recent improvements to this cozy log sided home. Comes with appliances and is ready to move into. Will not last long.

Key facts

• Log sided home
• Recent improvements
• Ready to move into

Tags

• RECENT IMPROVEMENTS
• LOG SIDED HOME
• READY TO MOVE INTO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Caribou — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#46 in ME, #4,849 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• RSU 39 (town): math 82% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #79 of 112 in ME (top 70%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Aroostook County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Aroostook County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 322 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $140k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $103,334 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 322 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.40%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,722
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -27.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-31,815
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-39,447
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04736

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,018/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $114,504

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 322 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 321 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 320 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 319 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 317 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 316 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 311 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 310 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 307 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 306 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 305 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 304 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 303 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    historical Active Under Contract 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Nice country location just minutes from town. Many recent improvements to this cozy log sided home. Comes with appliances and is ready to move into. Will not last long.

17. 2025-07-31
    listed $139,900 Active 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Nice country location just minutes from town. Many recent improvements to this cozy log sided home. Comes with appliances and is ready to move into. Will not last long.

18. 2024-02-05
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed
19. 2024-01-17
    status Pending
20. 2024-01-04
    status Active
21. 2023-12-28
    status Pending
22. 2023-12-21
    listed $79,000 Active
23. 2021-06-24
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed
24. 2021-05-25
    status Pending
25. 2021-05-23
    listed $110,000 Active
26. 2019-09-28
    price $99,900
27. 2019-08-02
    price $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,018 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,018 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,018
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$992
• − Management: −$992
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$4,208
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,010
• After-tax cash flow: $-715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 39
• NCES district ID: 2314794
• Math proficiency: 82% ▲ 55.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 39.00%
• Median HH income: $38,159
• Composite: 68.6/100
• National rank: #341
• State rank: #79 of 112 in ME

Livability — Caribou

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #4849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caribou, ME
• City population: 9,107
• Population (ZIP): 9,107

Population outlook (Aroostook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,905 people
• By 2030: 57,815 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 49,240 · -20.5%
• By 2050: 41,386 · -33.1%
• By 2075: 27,664 · -55.3%
• By 2100: 18,974 · -69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 28% Slovak 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Aroostook

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.2% · R 62.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.8pp toward R · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+17.3 2012: D+7.7 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.06%
• Current HPI: 219.5142
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+34.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Contingent — MREIS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $139,900 MREIS
• 2024-02-05 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MREIS
• 2024-01-17 Pending — MREIS
• 2024-01-04 Relisted — MREIS
• 2023-12-28 Pending — MREIS
• 2023-12-21 Listed $79,000 MREIS
• 2021-06-24 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MREIS
• 2021-05-25 Pending — MREIS
• 2021-05-23 Listed $110,000 MREIS
• 2019-09-28 Price Changed $99,900 MREIS
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $104,000 MREIS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,018 · -18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.