Duplex
3608 Burton Ave · Erie, PA
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.22%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 90°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 7 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +4.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.3/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$89,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
Nice looking Rental on the upper East side. There is off street parking a great location.
Key facts
- Close to parks
- Close to schools
- Two 4-bedroom units
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Property size approximately 0.12 acres; Lot dimensions: 34 x 138 x 34 x 138
- Financial info: Two rental units each currently renting for $900
Exterior
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
- Home design: Multi‑family residential income property; Two levels; Zoned R-1
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Built with asphalt roof
- Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Paved road access
Interior
- Bedrooms: Two units each with 4 bedrooms
- Bathrooms: Two units each with 1 bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
- Interior features: Forced air heating; No central cooling
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2 × 4-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $89k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $401/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
- Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
- Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $58k; list at $89k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.05% ✓
- Cap rate
- 17.11%
- Cash-on-cash
- 38.64%
- DSCR
- 2.72
- GRM
- 4.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $59,136
- Comps found
- 1
Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3608 Burton Ave | 0.00mi | 8/3.0 | 2,464 (0%) | 15mo | $58,000 | $24 | 86 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 34.8%
- Equity multiple
- 2.47×
- Total profit
- $36,733
- Equity at exit
- $13,270
- IRR
- 41.6%
- Equity multiple
- 4.93×
- Total profit
- $97,975
- Equity at exit
- $7,695
Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 16504
- Home prices YoY
- -17.9%
- Active inventory
- 68
- Price-to-rent
- 8.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,826 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$467
- Tax from tax record
- −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
- Insurance
- −$37
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$383
- Net cashflow
- $803
Break-even live
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 4 | 1 | $1,826 |
| #1 | 4 | 1 | $913 |
| #2 | 4 | 1 | $913 |
| Total (2 units) | $1,826 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $22,250
- Closing costs
- $2,670
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 13 events
-
2026-06-02status $89,000 Pending 4 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-05-29$89,000 Active
-
2025-03-21soldstatus $58,000 Closed 89-char remark
Show marketing remark (89 chars)
Nice looking Rental on the upper East side. There is off street parking a great location.
-
2025-03-20soldstatus $58,000
-
2025-02-23status Pending 89-char remark
Show marketing remark (89 chars)
Nice looking Rental on the upper East side. There is off street parking a great location.
-
2025-02-03price $89,900 89-char remark
Show marketing remark (89 chars)
Nice looking Rental on the upper East side. There is off street parking a great location.
-
2025-01-27price $119,000 89-char remark
Show marketing remark (89 chars)
Nice looking Rental on the upper East side. There is off street parking a great location.
-
2025-01-15$130,000 Active 89-char remark
Show marketing remark (89 chars)
Nice looking Rental on the upper East side. There is off street parking a great location.
-
1996-11-04soldstatus $21,000
-
1995-10-02soldstatus $20,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,635 · $136/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,635 · $136/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $21,912
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,985
- − Property taxes
- −$1,635
- − Insurance
- −$445
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,753
- − Management
- −$1,753
- − Depreciation
- −$2,589
- Taxable income
- $8,752
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,100
- After-tax cash flow
- $7,530/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Erie City SD
- NCES district ID
- 4209300
- Math proficiency
- 12% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 19% ▼ -16.00%
- Median HH income
- $33,625
- Composite
- 12.59/100
- National rank
- #9617
- State rank
- #510 of 539 in PA
Livability — Erie
- Score
- 83/100
- State rank
- #109
- US rank
- #840
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Erie, PA
- City population
- 92,215
- Population (ZIP)
- 15,632
Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 272,159 people
- By 2030
- 266,299 · -2.2%
- By 2040
- 250,987 · -7.8%
- By 2050
- 234,925 · -13.7%
- By 2075
- 199,164 · -26.8%
- By 2100
- 162,985 · -40.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (73%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, India, China
- Languages at home
- 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Erie
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -56.54%
- Current HPI
- 260.1053
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
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| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
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| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
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| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
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| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
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Price history
+345.0% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-29 Listed $89,000 GEBOR
- 2025-03-21 Sold (MLS) $58,000 GEBOR
- 2025-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
- 2025-02-23 Pending — GEBOR
- 2025-02-03 Price Changed $89,900 GEBOR
- 2025-01-27 Price Changed $119,000 GEBOR
- 2025-01-15 Listed $130,000 GEBOR
- 1996-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
- 1995-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+1.9%/yrLatest (2026): $1,635 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…