3111 Lucas St · Ossipee, NC 27244

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1935 5,663 sqft lot Est $360k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bedroom 2 Bath House With Hardwood Floors And Western Schools, There Is An Upstairs Not Added Into Heated Sq Footage And A Small Basement Unfinished.

Key facts

• Black range
• Marble-look counters
• White cabinets

Tags

• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETS
• MARBLE-LOOK COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• BLACK RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a privately maintained road; Directions: Hwy 87 N to Ossipee, left on Lucas St.
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport; Driveway; Gravel parking; 1 garage/carport space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electric power
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; One level; Built in 1935; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; No fireplaces
• Exterior features: Remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air electric heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Built-in features; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection; Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($943/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#598 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $210k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,500 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.60%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,970
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2816 Ricolden Trl	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,626 (-4%)	3mo	$343,999	$212	64
2812 Ricolden Trl	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,599 (-5%)	2mo	$339,999	$213	62
2803 Ricolden Trl	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,599 (-5%)	9mo	$339,999	$213	58
2824 Ricolden Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-9%)	4mo	$332,999	$217	56
2808 Ricolden Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-9%)	5mo	$325,000	$212	56
2820 Ricolden Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-7%)	10mo	$336,999	$214	54
2120 Northcrest Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-4%)	10mo	$292,000	$179	53
2828 Ricolden Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-12%)	3mo	$328,999	$220	52
2119 Northcrest Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+9%)	8mo	$305,000	$166	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,116
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-19,281
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27244

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $138	+0% $79	+5% $19	+10% $-40
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $12	+0% $79	+5% $146	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $132	base $79	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $210,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $210,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on marketlisting id $210,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    remarks 653-char remark
18. 2026-05-30
    listed $210,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 100.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$647
• After-tax cash flow: $1,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Ossipee

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #598
• US rank: #21764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ossipee, NC
• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 16,329
• Household income: $75,323
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.54%
• Current HPI: 219.7859
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+469.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $210,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-19 Sold (MLS) $73,000 TMLS
• 2019-08-19 Sold (MLS) $73,000 AMLSNC
• 2019-07-04 Listed $75,000 TMLS
• 2019-07-04 Listed $75,000 AMLSNC
• 2012-07-25 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Triad MLS
• 2012-06-11 Listed $30,000 Triad MLS
• 2012-04-10 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2011-05-28 Listed $43,900 TMLS
• 2003-12-23 Sold (MLS) $22,500 TMLS
• 2003-12-23 Sold (MLS) $22,500 AMLSNC
• 2003-09-02 Listed $24,900 TMLS
• 2003-09-02 Listed $24,900 AMLSNC
• 2003-08-15 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2003-02-26 Listed $36,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.