243 Kinsley · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$259,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,946 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2021 4,791 sqft lot $133/sqft · 24% below area Est $341k · 24% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath gem in the heart of New Braunfels, perfectly positioned with views of a private green space from your backyard. Extremely spacious with a Game Room upstairs, from the moment you walk in you'll notice this isn't builder basic. Thoughtful upgrades elevate every part of this home from the custom lighting to the functional layout and design. The open kitchen overlooks the living area and backyard and is a dream for cooking featuring a gas stove, a spacious walk-in pantry, and ALL appliances convey! This 'like new' build also features walk-in closets and storage throughout, upgraded blinds, owned water softener, security system, upgraded thermostat, epoxy back porch and garage, and a sprinkler system! Meticulously maintained and loaded with upgrades, here is your chance to own a beautiful little piece of New Braunfels!

Key facts

• Gas stove
• Private green space
• Custom lighting

Tags

• PRIVATE GREEN SPACE
• GAME ROOM
• CUSTOM LIGHTING
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clear Spring El (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C-, #818 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 835 students, 55% FRL); Canyon Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,175 students, 47% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,610 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.01%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,697
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -23.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 Joshua Hl	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-5%)	1mo	$269,900	$146	70
471 Copper Hl	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,844 (-5%)	3mo	$274,900	$149	70
1422 Tupelo	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,851 (-5%)	2mo	$280,000	$151	68
387 Copper Point Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,662 (-15%)	1mo	$249,900	$150	62
726 Jennifer Way	0.54mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (-3%)	4mo	$341,990	$181	62
307 Stone Pt	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,124 (+9%)	3mo	$249,000	$117	61
533 Sand Trail St	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,060 (+6%)	2mo	$298,800	$145	57
1425 Prairie Rock	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,667 (-14%)	2mo	$265,000	$159	56
538 Layne Overlook	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,173 (+12%)	2mo	$239,999	$110	52
503 Layne Overlook	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,173 (+12%)	4mo	$270,999	$125	50
539 Layne Overlook	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,173 (+12%)	4mo	$239,999	$110	50
1741 James St	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,672 (-14%)	2mo	$294,999	$176	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-67,143
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-106,027
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1931
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,046 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$420 /mo · $5,041/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,429

Max offer price $205,503

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-156	-5% $-230	+0% $-303	+5% $-376	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-464	-5% $-384	+0% $-303	+5% $-222	+10% $-141
Rate	-1.0pp $-172	-0.5pp $-237	base $-303	+0.5pp $-370	+1.0pp $-438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$1,650	$1.03	45d	1	0.01mi
248 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,750	$1.14	26d	1	0.02mi
255 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2094	$1,997	$0.95	24d	1	0.05mi
259 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2246	$2,450	$1.09	45d	1	0.05mi
259 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2246	$2,350	$1.05	26d	1	0.05mi
259 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2246	$2,345	$1.04	22d	1	0.05mi
166 Canopy Oak Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2394	$2,300	$0.96	26d	1	0.07mi
1509 Cap Ridge Peak New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,745	$1.11	26d	1	0.29mi
1078 Stone Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,645	$1.07	45d	1	0.39mi
378 Stone Pt New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,350	$0.91	26d	1	0.40mi
216 Stone Gate Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,595	$1.30	6d	1	0.42mi
475 Willow Arch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,995	$1.23	22d	1	0.43mi
1492 Jordan Xing New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,850	$1.00	26d	1	0.43mi
250 Topaz New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,550	$1.11	26d	1	0.54mi
461 Wind Gust New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1596	$1,800	$1.13	26d	1	0.55mi
461 Wind Gust New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1596	$1,800	$1.13	45d	1	0.55mi
1391 Rios Bend Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1639	$1,747	$1.07	26d	1	0.55mi
524 Willow Valley St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,785	$1.36	19d	1	0.55mi
729 Thea Cv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,625	$1.15	17d	1	0.56mi
1137 Gracie Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,695	$1.28	26d	1	0.56mi
1038 Mellow Breeze New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,795	$1.37	13d	1	0.57mi
722 Jennifer Way New Braunfels, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$1,995	$1.05	45d	1	0.57mi
533 Sentry Valley St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2418	$2,200	$0.91	19d	1	0.57mi
1644 Layne Loop New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	26d	1	0.58mi
1121 Gracie Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	3.5	1554	$1,875	$1.21	6d	1	0.58mi
206 Topaz #1502 New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1588	$1,900	$1.20	26d	1	0.58mi
314 Rosalie Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1409	$1,595	$1.13	26d	1	0.59mi
621 Jennifer Cv New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1396	$1,745	$1.25	0d	1	0.60mi
708 Saengerhalle Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,495	$1.09	19d	1	0.60mi
708 Saengerhalle Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,495	$1.09	18d	1	0.60mi
1696 James St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,150	$0.87	26d	1	0.62mi
518 Melody Wind New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,725	$1.36	19d	1	0.62mi
1009 Mellow Breeze New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,800	$1.25	26d	1	0.66mi
734 Saengerhalle Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,525	$1.11	45d	1	0.66mi
1255 Avery Ranch Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1892	$1,800	$0.95	17d	1	0.66mi
1721 James St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	0.67mi
417 Deborah Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	45d	1	0.68mi
220 Anne Louise Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2424	$1,395	$0.58	26d	1	0.69mi
1733 James St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1717	$1,995	$1.16	26d	1	0.70mi
752 Saengerhalle Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,450	$1.06	19d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: watergassecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $259,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Price Change 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Price Change 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Price Change 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Price Change 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $259,000 Price Change 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Price Change 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Price Change 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,900 Price Change 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,900 Price Change 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,900 Price Change 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Price Change 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricestatus $264,900 Price Change 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $269,000 876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (876 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath gem in the heart of New Braunfels, perfectly positioned with views of a private green space from your backyard. Extremely spacious with a Game Room upstairs, from the moment you walk in you'll notice this isn't builder basic. Thoughtful upgrades elevate every part of this home from the custom lighting to the functional layout and design. The open kitchen overlooks the living area and backyard and is a dream for cooking featuring a gas stove, a spacious walk-in pantry, and ALL appliances convey! This 'like new' build also features walk-in closets and storage throughout, upgraded blinds, owned water softener, security system, upgraded thermostat, epoxy back porch and garage, and a sprinkler system! Meticulously maintained and loaded with upgrades, here is your chance to own a beautiful little piece of New Braunfels!

17. 2026-04-07
    price $299,000 876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (876 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath gem in the heart of New Braunfels, perfectly positioned with views of a private green space from your backyard. Extremely spacious with a Game Room upstairs, from the moment you walk in you'll notice this isn't builder basic. Thoughtful upgrades elevate every part of this home from the custom lighting to the functional layout and design. The open kitchen overlooks the living area and backyard and is a dream for cooking featuring a gas stove, a spacious walk-in pantry, and ALL appliances convey! This 'like new' build also features walk-in closets and storage throughout, upgraded blinds, owned water softener, security system, upgraded thermostat, epoxy back porch and garage, and a sprinkler system! Meticulously maintained and loaded with upgrades, here is your chance to own a beautiful little piece of New Braunfels!

18. 2026-03-26
    listed $319,000 New 876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (876 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath gem in the heart of New Braunfels, perfectly positioned with views of a private green space from your backyard. Extremely spacious with a Game Room upstairs, from the moment you walk in you'll notice this isn't builder basic. Thoughtful upgrades elevate every part of this home from the custom lighting to the functional layout and design. The open kitchen overlooks the living area and backyard and is a dream for cooking featuring a gas stove, a spacious walk-in pantry, and ALL appliances convey! This 'like new' build also features walk-in closets and storage throughout, upgraded blinds, owned water softener, security system, upgraded thermostat, epoxy back porch and garage, and a sprinkler system! Meticulously maintained and loaded with upgrades, here is your chance to own a beautiful little piece of New Braunfels!

19. 2026-03-26
    historical

    Show marketing remark (876 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath gem in the heart of New Braunfels, perfectly positioned with views of a private green space from your backyard. Extremely spacious with a Game Room upstairs, from the moment you walk in you'll notice this isn't builder basic. Thoughtful upgrades elevate every part of this home from the custom lighting to the functional layout and design. The open kitchen overlooks the living area and backyard and is a dream for cooking featuring a gas stove, a spacious walk-in pantry, and ALL appliances convey! This 'like new' build also features walk-in closets and storage throughout, upgraded blinds, owned water softener, security system, upgraded thermostat, epoxy back porch and garage, and a sprinkler system! Meticulously maintained and loaded with upgrades, here is your chance to own a beautiful little piece of New Braunfels!

20. 2026-03-06
    price $339,000
21. 2026-02-10
    listed $349,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,041 · $420/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,041 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$5,041
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$8,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,956
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Braunfels, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $269,000 LERA
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $299,000 LERA
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-03-26 Listed $319,000 LERA
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $339,000 LERA
• 2026-02-10 Listed $349,900 LERA

Property tax history

+34.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,041 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.